It’s a massive event that has attracted, for now eight yearsa ministers, authorities y companies in the sectorin addition to dozens of experts on military, geopolitical and security issues. At the beginning of May, the Polish National Stadiumon the eastern margin of the Vistula Riverwith his innovative architecture and his retractable roofit transforms into an immense logistics space to host ‘Defence 24 days’, the war fair of larger dimensions that is celebrated in Europa Central y Oriental. In this brand new place, during two daysnot only are the main innovations in the sector presented, from modern frigates built by Dutch companies until robotics y drones of the latest generation, but they are also organized presentations y high debates about the war taking place in neighboring Ukraine, and the complex geopolitical situation current in Europe.
The Warsaw event is a great example of the attitude with which the Slavic country faces the Russian invasion of Ukraine, more than four yearsand the consequences that are derived from it. Both citizens and authorities are aware that in the eastern border of the EU, over the coming years or decades, will have to manage the threat posed by a aggressive power y hostile like the Russian Federation, at a time, furthermore, when the deterrent force of NATO and the solidarity within the alliance facing a possible attack is more than ever in question. “I would like the citizens in Spain to understand the situation,” he explains. Pawel Kowal, president of Foreign Affairs Committee of the Sejm, the lower house of Parliament, to a group of Spanish correspondents invited by the Polish embassy in Madrid, in front of a map of the border of their country and Bioelorussia. “Sometimes it is difficult to convey this message to allied countries” located far from Ukraine, as may be the case of Spain or even Italiathe deputy comes to affirm.
Gitanas Nauseda, President of Lithuania, together with Karol Nawrocki, President of Poland, at the ‘Brave Griffin 26’ military maneuvers on the Lithuanian side of the Suwalki Gap. / Damian Lemanski / Bloomberg
And the truth is that the eventuality by one limited attack against EU or NATO territory, which does not imply a massive response from the alliance, but which “tests” the solidarity and the mutual defense clause contained in article 5 of the Atlantic Charter and in article 42 of the Treaty of the European Union, is contemplated here as a very plausible option y nothing remotethey assure official sources Polish women under anonymity. “We believe that Putin might be tempted to launch this attack during the president’s term Donald Trump”, which ends in 2028 or at the latest in the “next years”, during which the defensive pillar of the Twenty-seven will still be in a transitional period, not constituting any deterrent force before the Kremlin. “The Russian president is an opportunist” and is aware that if he waits too long, he could face a situation “less favorable”with allies with strengthened and more cohesive military capabilities, these sources assess.
Poland spends 4,5% of its GDP in defense and has a modern Army that aspires to have 500,000 men by 2030. This makes the Slavic country the main military power of Eastern Europe, and in the State located geographically closest to the scenarios where that eventual limited attack could take place. In particular the Narva regionin Estonia, inhabited mainly by Russian speakersor the so-called ‘Suwalki gap’, the narrow 80-kilometer-long corridor bordering the Russian Federation and Belarus and separating polish territory of the three Baltic republics, countries that have small armies y tragic histories of occupation during the years in which they were under the sovereignty of the USSR.
Such an eventuality It is carefully studied by the Institute of Oriental Studies, an analytical institution that observes troop movements in Russia and Belarus and issues recommendations to the Government. Today, according to Piotr Szymanski, senior researcher, least plausible option It is an attack from Belarus and the Kaliningrad enclave has been deployed tactical nuclear weapons. The troops stationed there do not have a high combat trainingsince Russia currently employs its best soldiers currently “on the Ukrainian front,” this analyst estimates.
Hybrid warfare
The intensification of the hybrid war launched from Russia in recent months reinforces the feeling between politicians and Polish analysts to take the current ukrainian war to EU territory constitutes an option that the military authorities in Moscow they shuffle for a long time. He last september 19 drones launched by the Russian Army violated Polish airspace, in a serious incident that led to the Government invoking Article 4 of NATO, which implies the opening of consultations in the face of an “unprecedented aggression”, an episode that is interpreted by Polish official sources anonymous as “a test” to measure, not only the military response of the Armed Forces or solidarity within NATO, but also the resilience of the polish society. “USA (chaired by Donald Trump) was the only country that did not classify the act as a provocation, leaving open the possibility that it was an accident,” they recall. anxiously these sources.
Anti-tank lines deployed on the eastern border of Poland adjacent to Belarus. / Damian Lemanski/Bloomberg
But the realization that the attack was accompanied by a wave of tens of thousands of posts on social media falsely accusing Ukraine of serious accident allowed local experts to determine that it was a coordinated military operation and of disinformation. And in a country like Poland, with historical grievances relatively recent with Ukraine, and which currently hosts more than one million ukrainian refugeesthe main objective of Russian propaganda is, more than generating sympathies for the Kremlin among the population, “to create hostility between both countries and their citizens,” states Adrianna Sniadowska-Konecznydirector of the Center for International Relations, a think tank specialized in disinformation. The target social segment of these narratives, according to this analyst, is the electorate of “small towns o rural areasor the one oriented towards the extreme right”, precisely in a country that is preparing to elect the new Parliament next year.
The Center for International Relations has also identified a circumstance which further complicates the fight against Kremlin disinformation: the increasingly visible alliance between China and Russia in this area. There are fake websites with pro-Russian content and that transmit their narratives, such as News Front o Bygoszcz Daily, that are based “in China”, and that, no matter how much they are deleted or deleted, they reappear with a “different” IP.
“Prevention is better than cure,” they conclude. government sources about the tense situation in the country. And to avoid catching citizens off guard, a manual is already circulating among Poles where is instructed about how to react to “digital, chemical, biological, radiological or even nuclear threats”, with a strong slogan presiding over the heading of the information brochure: “Do not delay your decision to prepare”
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