What does China expect from Trump’s visit?

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, is scheduled to visit China on May 14th and 15th, when he will meet his counterpart Xi Jinping, after postponing a previous summit due to the war in Iran.

The following are the goals Beijing could be hoping to achieve:

What does China want?

In addition to diplomatic courtesies and behind closed doors, Beijing will seek small, concrete achievementsaccording to analysts, but will remain “realistic and pragmatic” given Trump’s unpredictable nature.

China wants a general resumption of relationsbut he knows this is unlikely, said Benjamin Ho, from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, in Singapore.

Beijing and Washington had last year engaged in a trade war, in which American tariffs on many Chinese products reached an exorbitant 145%.

The escalation of reprisals cooled after Trump and Xi agreed in October to a one-year truce, and experts say Beijing’s basic objective for the next meeting will be to extend that agreement.

“What China needs is for Trump to fulfill his promise to commit, with at least some concrete results discussed at the highest level,” considered Yue Su, from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

Beijing will be satisfied with “specific” results, such as limited tariff reductions that justify a moderate withdrawal of its own tariffs or export restrictions, he noted.

What happens to the Iran war?

The topic of Iran will be “difficult to avoid” in the meeting between Trump and Xiaccording to experts, but “this is not an area in which China is eager to become deeply involved.”

“The United States is already increasing pressure on China ahead of the summit by targeting its economic ties with Tehran,” explained Lizzi Lee of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Trump warned last month that he would impose a 50% tariff on Chinese goods if the country provided military assistance to Tehran.

Beijing is a close partner of the Islamic republic and has classified as illegal the US and Israeli bombings that sparked the war on February 28, but has also criticized Iranian attacks on Gulf countries and called for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, China will not accept pressure from the United States to take action against Iran or Russia, over which “it may have some influence, but not decisive control”, pointed out Su, from the EIU.

War with Iran would add “another layer of mutual pressure,” Lee maintained, although the real negotiating terrain remains trade and investment.

What are China’s negotiating charters?

One of the main trading cards of China is its rare earths, crucial metals in every industry from smartphones to electric cars.

China’s dominance in this sector, from natural reserves and mining to processing and innovationis the result of a decades-long effort.

It remains China’s most powerful tool if significant concessions are needed from the United States, Su said.

Trump demonstrated that he “cares a lot” about rare earthsadded Joe Mazur, geopolitical analyst at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

“I think this is something that the United States really doesn’t have an answer for,” he said.

Mazur believes China “will prepare for … quick wins” before the visit, which could include purchasing more American agricultural products or Boeing planes.

China, he said, could hope “that this will put Trump and his team in a positive frame of mind when they later discuss more complex and thorny issues.”

How did Beijing prepare?

China has protected itself against the instability generated by Trump by diversifying trade towards Southeast Asia and the Global South, in addition to strengthening regional ties, said Lee of the Asia Society.

Beijing has also refined its legal and regulatory toolkitshe said, and “has a potentially broader playbook,” as seen in the recent blocking of tech giant Meta’s acquisition of AI company Manus.

However, many of these measures, including the diversification of energy imports, the push toward electrification and technological self-sufficiency, predate Trump’s second term, Mazur noted.

Does China feel safe?

Beijing will go to talks with “cautious confidence,” Lee said.

She believes she can now better absorb the pressure and feels more comfortable playing “the long game” than Trump, who faces the pressure of the midterm legislative elections, pointed out.

A trip to Beijing by Russian President Vladimir Putin is also planned. His Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said it would take place in the first half of the year.

A back-to-back visit would send the message that “just because he (Xi) had a good meeting with Trump doesn’t mean Chinese support for Russia will disappear,” Mazur told AFP.

“This relationship is solid as a rock”, he considered.