President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Beijing next week in a high-stakes summit that could define the next phase of the rivalry between the two biggest global powers.
Trump and Xi are expected to discuss the war in Iran, trade, Taiwan and other points of tension during the two-day summit that begins on Thursday. The two last met in October in South Korea, when they agreed to suspend a bitter trade war in which the US imposed triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing threatened to strangle the global supply of rare earths.
This week’s visit could determine whether the fragile detente that has emerged since that meeting will continue.
A lot has changed since the last meeting between the two leaders. Trump is now embroiled in a war with Iran, China’s closest partner in the Middle East, which has sparked a global energy crisis and diverted US military assets away from Asia. The war has also reduced U.S. ammunition stocks, raising doubts among some Chinese analysts about America’s ability to defend Washington’s close ally Taiwan.
Xi faces his own challenges, dealing with slower economic growth, higher energy prices and the possibility of a global recession that would hurt China’s economy, which is heavily dependent on exports.
What’s on the table?
Trump and Xi will likely discuss trade, including possible investments in their respective countries. Washington has been highlighting what analysts call the “Five B’s”. This includes Chinese purchases of Boeing planes, US beef and soybeans, as well as the creation of an investment council and a trade council. These two instances would define areas of economic exchange between the United States and China that do not raise national security concerns.
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The Chinese, in turn, have emphasized the “Three T’s”: tariffs, technology and Taiwan – which Beijing claims as part of its territory. China is likely to push for an extension of last year’s trade truce and the loosening of export controls on advanced semiconductors, which it needs to modernize its industrial sector. Xi, who told Trump in a phone call in February that his country “will never allow Taiwan to be separated from China,” is expected to pressure the American to reduce U.S. support for the self-ruled island.
Trump is expected to ask Beijing to convince Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides are also expected to discuss cooperation in managing risks related to artificial intelligence.
Trump has said he will raise the case of Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai, who was sentenced in February to 20 years in prison for conspiracy and sedition. Other topics include expanding China’s nuclear arsenal, security in the South China Sea and reducing the flow of fentanyl into the United States.
What are the possible results?
Trump boasts of his relationship with Xi, whom he calls a “friend,” and is eager to announce an increase in Chinese investment in the United States.
But expectations are not high that the two sides will reach a grand economic agreement or resolve their deep differences. The most likely outcome is a set of modest investment agreements and the extension of last year’s temporary trade truce.
“We probably shouldn’t expect this meeting to produce particularly substantial breakthroughs or major breakthroughs,” said Zhao Minghao, an international relations expert at Fudan University in Shanghai, adding that the meeting should serve as a starting point for further engagement. American officials said the two leaders could meet four times this year.
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Analysts say the summit is also a way for both sides to buy time to reduce mutual dependence as the competition continues. “Within China, there remains a deep sense of distrust toward the United States,” said Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
What could go wrong?
The dispute over the war in Iran could undermine the talks. Without mentioning Trump by name, Xi last month criticized the American president’s disregard for international law, calling it a “return to the law of the jungle.”
While China is pressing Iranian officials to negotiate with the United States, it has avoided doing more to help resolve a war that Beijing sees as Washington’s problem. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Beijing last week with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi. Wang called for more efforts to open the strait, but also said China supports Iran’s “legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.”
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Trump said on Thursday he believed China did not support Iran’s position more strongly out of respect for its relationship with Xi.
Both China and the United States have been strengthening their instruments of economic warfare. When the US Treasury imposed sanctions on a Chinese refiner in April for buying Iranian oil, Beijing ordered its companies not to comply and issued regulations that give authorities power to investigate foreign companies and governments.
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