Putin has hinted that the war in Ukraine may be nearing an end. But why now?

ANALYSIS || It may be nothing more than an illusion, but it is something that the President of Russia has never left in the air in such a notorious way. At the same time, in Moscow there are already those who question whether Putin will survive the war

It was an unusual statement at a time of extreme pressure.

The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, took advantage of the traditional Victory Day parades, on May 9, which commemorate the defeat of Nazi Germany by the Soviet Union, to say something remarkable: that he believed that the issue of the Ukrainian conflict “was coming to an end”. This comment, the first real indication that Putin’s war of choice might be moving toward a conclusion, came after a long lament about the failure of negotiations at the start of the 2022 invasion and was unusually brief.

However, this is not a man who speaks casually or erratically. And its target audience is not just US President Donald Trump. Putin’s rare departure from his usual unsatisfactory position may have been planned to keep alive the illusion that peace in Ukraine could soon be negotiated, something the Kremlin chief has been seeking for some time.

Still, on a day when Moscow demonstrated all its military power, it chose not to sound the maximalist alarm – that the “special military operation” must continue until its objectives are achieved. (Spoiler: These goals—demilitarizing Ukraine and seizing the country’s eastern Donbass region—are far from being achieved.) Instead, Putin appeared to reflect the prevailing sentiment in Russia, borne out by recent opinion polls, that the war needs to end soon.

There was yet another twist in Putin’s surprise strategy: he suggested that Gerhard Schröder, who was German chancellor from 1998 to 2005, during Putin’s initial period of rapprochement with the West, be the main negotiator in any future direct talks with Europe. Schröder was chairman of the board of the Russian Nord Stream gas pipeline project until his resignation following the 2022 invasion, but has remained close to Putin. This association discredited him in the eyes of many, and the immediate response to this idea in Europe was reportedly weak, but it could be heard in Washington, D.C., and further complicate genuine efforts to move forward with peace.

It is easy to analyze Putin’s new diplomatic speech through the prism of his last year of failed and feigned attempts to achieve peace. But the widespread belief that Putin’s government would not survive anything less than a near-total victory in Ukraine has been shaken by recent widespread criticism across Russia of the conduct of the war, its duration and its terrible human and economic cost. Among Muscovites, a rumor arises that Putin may simply not survive (politically) the war.

It is difficult to see the parade in Red Square as anything more than a crushing humiliation for the literal fortress of the Kremlin. Before the event, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a “decree” authorizing it – barring his forces from attacking the area – a provocative gesture that contradicts the sense that Kiev feels at a disadvantage.

The absence of Russian military weaponry at the parade stands in stark contrast to the show of might of previous years, when Western weapons experts pored over the latest tank models, highlighting minor upgrades. This year, Moscow only had soldiers, and these are also increasingly scarce.

Europe has long harbored a vain – even fanciful – hope that Russia would one day give in to Ukraine. In the absence of real European or NATO military involvement in the war, this became the continent’s only strategy: pressure and wait for Moscow to give in to Kiev. With Trump’s return to the White House last year, Europe didn’t have many other options.

The course of the war has been marked by successes and failures for both sides throughout its four years. Moscow’s initial failures still resulted in the conquest and maintenance of territories, only to later lose them. Then their unyielding obstinacy led to the slow conquest of small parts of the front line, which decimated Ukraine’s limited manpower. Last year, Kiev appeared to be in dire straits, without resources and without the full support of its most important ally, the United States. But the mood around this latest twist is different for two reasons.

Firstly, the collapse of morale in Russia is palpable. This only occurs in a policed ​​state when a critical mass of discontent begins to see itself as a majority and feels confident enough to speak out publicly. Putin has survived fierce criticism of his war before – when the short-lived coup led by Yevgeny Prigozhin failed as dramatically as it began in 2023.

But it is running out of impoverished or convict Russians to enlist and then lose in poorly planned and brutal attacks, and it is having difficulty attracting middle-class students to the ranks.

The Russian economy is really feeling the pressure now. The elite is apparently so angry that Putin feels obliged to appease them with the suggestion – broadcast on Saturday by state media – that the war may be coming to an end. Much can still change, and the supposed build-up of Russian troops along the front line may even provide some progress. But the Kremlin is in trouble.

The second change concerns the situation of Ukrainians. They also have no soldiers – perhaps more drastically – but they have robots galore. Russia’s almost negligible progress on the front lines is largely due to the fact that Kiev has found ways to attack, resupply, evacuate and intercept Russian attacks with unmanned vehicles, or drones.

It is a truly remarkable feat, whose importance in modern warfare was underscored when wealthy Gulf nations turned to Zelensky in March for help defending their airspaces from Iranian drones. He now actually has “the cards up his sleeve” to keep fighting, after Trump said last year he had none.

Moscow has reached technological mismatch before, often within months, and so Ukraine should heed the Russian metaphor of “drinking champagne too soon.”

But a summer approaches in which, despite the war with Iran depriving Ukraine of the global attention it so desperately needs, Kiev remains standing rather than on its knees: a story of remarkable survival, against all odds, for there was no other choice.

Meanwhile, Putin’s apparent belief that his state resources are infinite is slowly revealing itself to be the foolishness it always was. All wars end, and perhaps Putin has finally realized this.