It is a question that haunts many of the ministerial headquarters of Defense in the EU, after checking the situation in the war front of Ukraine and downcast mood with which Russia celebrated the Victory Day holiday on May 9, the militaristic quote annual with which citizens and leadership pay tribute to their Army. Has the war reached the point of stalemate that forces the Russian government to negotiate “in good faith” a ceasefire agreement, “without maximalist demands” on the authorities of kyiv? The latest data released points to a change in cycle: in April, for the first time since 2024, not only did Russia lose more territory than it conquered, but it was also unable to recruit enough soldiers to replace the military casualties, between dead and wounded, counted in the battlefield.
“It is a trend that we began to notice starting in January; each month (the Russian Army) occupied less and less territory, until in April the final count determined that it lost an area equivalent to between 113 and 115 square kilometers, mainly in the Zaporizhia region,” he explains to EL PERIÓDICO from kyiv. Andrii Ordynovychdirector of strategic support and development at the think tank Ukranian Freedom Funda man who in the past held positions in the Ukrainian mission to NATO and in his country’s embassy in Washington.
Even in Ukrainian cities that Russia once announced with all the fanfare that it had under its control complete controlsuch as the communications hub of Pokrovsk and the town of Chásiv Yarthere are still contingents of Ukrainian soldiers opposing the invader, despite the fact that the occupying forces control about 90% of both towns. Yes indeed. These are estimated data and may vary depending on the sources, because the new technologies used in this war, specifically the droneshave converted large areas of the front into what are known in English as ‘grey zones’ (gray zones in Spanish) where neither of the two armies exercises effective control over the territory.
Number of casualties
He kyiv Government has declared that it intends to inflict on its enemy a number of military casualties, quantified in 50,000 dead or injured per monthbeyond which he calculates that it would be very difficult for Moscow to maintain the pace of recruitment and, therefore, the Kremlin’s war effort. “Let’s make the cost of the war unsustainable for Russia, and from there force peace through strength.” This is the task that the President Volodymir Zelensky to the new Minister of Defense, Mijailo Fedorov, as reported by the member of the Executive himself in his first appearance before the press.
And in this area, Ukrainian forces are also making progress. According to the estimates of the UK Ministry of Defense collected by the Center for International and Strategic Studiesthe figure established by kyiv is increasingly within reach. In December 2025the number of casualties was around los 30.000while in March and April it already reached los 35.000. “We are registering an increasing number of irreparable losses” on the Russian side, Ordynovych corroborates. This means that for the first time since the beginning of the conflict, Russia enrolls monthly in its armed forces, “between 1,000 and 3,000 soldiers less” than those who fall in combat between dead and wounded.
It’s not just about recover territory or cause unaffordable casualties to the adversary. The objective is to attack their rear, their sources of income and undermine their capacity to maintain war infrastructure. During the last year, the Ukrainian armed forces have intensified their attacks against facilities linked to the hydrocarbon sector in Russia, managing to reduce production and income, and at the same time tempering the economic benefit that the recent temporary lifting by the US of the price cap agreed upon by the Russian Federation has brought to the Russian side. international community at the end of 2022. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), crude oil production in April reached the figure of 8.8 million barrels of oil a day, one piece of information 460,000 barrels lower than that recorded a year ago.
Attacks on refineries have doubled between january and may of this year in comparison with the same period of 2025, affecting to 16 facilities and reducing refining capacity by 700,000 barrels per day. All of this has caused a significant reduction in Russian exports of petroleum products, which have barely exceeded two million barrels a day and have been reduced, only between the months of March and April, in 340,000 barrels a day.
As Ukraine integrates into the military and political structures of the EU and NATO, its Army is assuming the methodology of the West, asserting its professionalism against a numerically superior enemy and leaving behind the culture prevailing in the Soviet armed forces. “In the Soviet Army, command is centralized with very limited initiative, while in the West, the planning is centralized but more freedom is granted in execution,” Ordyonovych is proud. Despite all this progress, in this expert’s opinion, it is still difficult to envision a stage in which a cessation of hostilities in the war in Ukraine is possible. “If this dynamic can be maintained in the coming months, we could be attending the beginning of a process“that would allow a”fair negotiation and in favorable terms“for the invaded country, he concludes.
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