Donald Trump’s decision to involve the United States in the conflict against Iran began to produce measurable political effects within the country. A New York Times/Siena poll released this Monday (18) shows that the president’s approval rating fell to 37%, the lowest level since the beginning of his second term in the White House.
The survey shows that rejection of the war crosses an important part of the American electorate and mainly affects independents, a decisive group in the mid-term legislative elections scheduled for November.
According to the survey, almost two-thirds of those interviewed believe that Trump was wrong to enter the conflict in the Middle East. Among independents, the index rises even more. Almost three-quarters believe that the decision was wrong.
The predominant perception among voters is that the political, economic and military costs of war are not worth it. Less than a quarter of those interviewed said they believed the offensive was worth the stress it caused.
The conflict also contaminated areas traditionally favorable to the Republican. The conduct of the economy, one of Trump’s main political assets since the campaign, began to deteriorate sharply.
According to the survey, 64% disapprove of the president’s economic management. The scenario also worsened on issues linked to the cost of living and foreign policy, including the conduct of the war in Gaza and the escalation with Tehran.
Continues after advertising
Attrition appears more intensely outside the Republican base. Among independents, 69% currently disapprove of Trump’s performance, up from 62% in January.
The sense of direct impact of the president’s policies also grew. Today, 44% say they were personally harmed by government decisions, compared to 36% last year. Among independents, the percentage rose from 41% at the end of 2025 to 47% now.
Despite the worsening of indicators, Trump still preserves important pillars of political support. The issue of immigration remains relatively resistant to wear and tear and maintains an approval rating of 41%.
Midterms
The Republicans also arrive at the electoral cycle with a structural advantage in the dispute for the House of Representatives after the redrawing of electoral districts in states controlled by the party, a movement that increased the number of seats considered favorable to the conservatives.
The survey also points to persistent difficulties for Democrats to convert dissatisfaction with Trump into electoral enthusiasm. Only 26% of respondents said they were satisfied with the Democratic Party.
Internal discontent also appears high among Democrats themselves: 44% said they were dissatisfied with the party. Among Republicans, this rate was 23%.
Continues after advertising
Even so, in a hypothetical scenario for the legislative elections, the Democrats appear numerically ahead. According to the survey, 50% say they would vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress if the election were held today, compared to 39% who would choose a Republican.
Among independents, the Democratic advantage reaches 18 percentage points.
The survey also measured support for new military actions against Iran. More than half of those interviewed, 52%, said Trump should not resume attacks if a nuclear deal is not reached.
Continues after advertising
Another sensitive point involves the limits of presidential power in military decisions. According to the survey, 63% of Americans, including 27% of Republicans, believe that the president should not use military force without authorization from Congress.
Within the Trumpist base, however, support for the hard line remains high. Around 70% of Republicans favor resuming military operations if negotiations fail, while 73% believe war could eliminate Iran’s nuclear program.
