Despite the erosion in popularity, Lula appears in the lead in all electoral scenarios tested by the Atlas/Bloomberg survey
The president of Brazil, Lula da Silva, appears at the forefront of the main scenarios for the presidential elections in the country later this year, despite continuing to face high levels of disapproval of his government. The data is from one released this Tuesday.
According to the study, 51.3% of respondents disapprove of Lula’s performance, while 47.4% approve of the Brazilian head of state’s performance. Another 1.3% said they did not know how to answer. Regarding the assessment of governance, 48.4% classify management as “bad” or “terrible”, while 42.9% consider the executive “good” or “great”. 8.7% evaluate the government as “regular”.
Despite the erosion in popularity, Lula appears in the lead in all electoral scenarios tested by the poll.
In the main first round scenario, which takes place on October 4th, Lula has 47% of voting intentions, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, identified as a possible candidate from the Bolsonaro space, with 34.3%.
Jair Bolsonaro with his son, Flávio Bolsonaro, in the 2022 presidential elections. AP
In the same simulation, Renan Santos, from the Missão party, appears with 6.9%, Romeu Zema, from the Novo party, adds 5.2% and Ronaldo Caiado, from the PSD, registers 2.7%.
In a scenario without Flávio Bolsonaro, but with Romeu Zema as the main opposition figure, Lula reaches 46.7%, while the Minas Gerais governor receives 17%. Ronaldo Caiado appears with 13.8% and Renan Santos with 8%.
The second round simulations, which take place on October 26th, also put the current president at an advantage. Against Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula would obtain 48.9% of the votes, against 41.8% for the senator. In a possible duel with Jair Bolsonaro, he would win by 48.5% against 43.4%.
Compared to Romeu Zema, Lula has 47.8%, while the governor of Minas Gerais has 37.6%. Against Ronaldo Caiado, the difference is 47.5% to 38.5%.
Without Lula in the presidential race, former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad appears numerically ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in a second round scenario, with 46.7% against 43%. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin also appears ahead of the Brazilian senator, with 46.4% compared to 42.3%.
The Atlas/Bloomberg survey interviewed 5,032 people between May 13th and 18th, through random digital recruitment. The margin of error is one percentage point, with a 95% confidence level.
