Amid expectations of progress and resolution of negotiations between the United States and Iran, another agreement ended up dominating international news.
They are called Abraham Accordsmediated by the Americans and which normalize relations between countries in the Arab world and Israel, without clear guarantees of the creation of a Palestinian State.
This week, Donald Trump demanded that countries in the Middle East sign the pact amid the efforts made by Washington in talks with Iran, which have not yet yielded concrete results in ending the war.
What are the Abraham Accords?
Initially signed in September 2020 during Trump’s first term, they had, in principle, and unofficially, the mission of forming a containment bloc against Iran in the Arab world and containing Tehran’s influence in the region.
The name Abraham is a reference to the patriarch who is a central figure in the history of Judaism and Islam and reflects the link between the two peoples.
Initially, the pact was signed in a ceremony at the White House with leaders from Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Shortly afterwards, Sudan and Morocco also agreed to take part.
As a result, signatory countries began to normalize relations with the Israelis, even without guarantees that a Palestinian State would be recognized and created.
Commercial relations were expanded, mainly in the areas of science, defense and security, ambassadors were officially appointed and direct flights began to operate between some of the countries.
At the time, the United States’ proposal showed nations the need to position themselves against Iran and that profitable bilateral trade relations could be formed, even if the Palestinian issue was not resolved.
Which countries have signed?
Israel is considered the pivot of the agreements. For the country, the signing meant the end of regional isolation and the opening of new billion-dollar markets for many companies.
On the other hand, the Israelis offered greater access to cutting-edge technology, especially in water, agribusiness and cybersecurity issues.
The UAE’s entry was for a pragmatic reason.
By signing, the country gained an unprecedented authorization from the United States Congress to purchase F-35 stealth fighters and MQ-9 Reaper armed drones, two strategic tools for military deployment in the region and military deterrence.
Bahrain’s signature was for strategic reasons of survival.
The country is governed by a Sunni royal family, but has a majority Shiite population, the same strain of Islam as Iran.
Bahrain fears that Tehran will incite rebellions that could topple the royals and being part of the Abraham Accords would be one way to mitigate this risk.
Morocco and Sudan also offered rewards from the Americans.
In the case of Morocco, the United States secured recognition of a disputed territory called Western Sahara.
Sudan agreed to sign with the promise that Washington would remove the country from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism, which freed up access to IMF loans.
Which countries are left to sign?
There is in fact no official list of countries that have not signed, but there are those that have come into the sights of American diplomacy to become members.
Among them, Saudi Arabia certainly appears at the top of the priorities. of the crown” of the Abraham Accords.
The country is considered the great cradle of Islam in the world and is home to the religion’s holiest cities.
However, signing a pact that recognizes Israel’s legitimacy, normalizes relations with the Israelis and, on top of that, does not provide guarantees for the creation of a Palestinian State, could be considered a major betrayal of the cause in the Arab world and compromise the authority and position of the Saudis in the region.
The Saudis’ signature would require great rewards from the American side, such as a mutual defense agreement between the two countries along the lines of NATO.
Qatar is also in the sights of the United States, but the Gulf country has an atypical situation in relation to Tehran.
Historically, Qatar has had easy access and transit between militant groups such as Iranian-funded Hamas, the Taliban and Iran itself.
By being part of the Abraham Accords, a group to contain Iranian influence in the region, the country would be breaking its supposed neutrality.
Pakistan, although not part of the Middle East, is also cited as one of the examples of future integration into the agreement. Even so, there are difficulties.
The country has a very volatile internal social situation and significant anti-Israel sentiment among the population.
Adherence to the agreements could incite internal revolts, increasing the risk of overthrowing the government.
Furthermore, Pakistan has become increasingly closer to China, especially on trade issues, and entering into a pact brokered by the United States could put the relationship at risk.
Iran’s accession
By demanding that countries in the Arab world sign the agreement, Trump suggested the idea that, in the future, he himself would, which created a certain paradox.
In the international community, the understanding of analysts is that the plan sounds practically utopian, since the Abraham Accords were thought, in essence, as a way of creating a belt that contains Iran’s influence in the region.
Furthermore, Tehran’s accession would be impractical due to the country’s own internal issues.
“The Abraham Accords sought to reorganize the Middle East by bringing Israel closer to Arab countries based on common strategic interests, especially containing Iran. Therefore, the idea of including Iran itself in this group sounds almost paradoxical: Iran was precisely one of the factors that boosted these agreements. For this to happen, a profound change in the Iranian strategic identity and the regional dynamics built in recent decades would be necessary”, explains Fernanda Magnotta, analyst at International at CNN Brazil.
The founding of the Ayatollahs’ regime envisages the destruction of the State of Israel, not to mention that the Iranian constitution prohibits any collaboration, recognition or normalization with Israel under penalty of death.
“Iran has built an important part of its regional influence precisely on supporting the so-called ‘axis of resistance’, with groups and actors that position themselves against Israel. Entering the Abraham Accords would mean dismantling the political logic that has supported its regional projection for decades. This does not seem to make sense from the perspective of Iranian governance”, assesses Fernanda Magnotta.
