The Ukrainian war could be entering a completely different stage after more than two years of attrition, trenches and minimal progress and more than four years of war. That is the conclusion reached by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), one of the most closely followed military analysis centers on the conflict, which believes that kyiv has managed to temporarily upset the balance on the front thanks to a combination of , logistical attacks and Russian exhaustion.
The change still does not imply a major mechanized offensive or a total rupture of the front. But it does point, according to analysts, to something relevant: Russia would be losing capacity to advance at the pace of 2025 while Ukraine begins to regain tactical mobility.
The ISW believes the war could move from the trench phase to a more dynamic one and Ukrainian drones are hitting Russian supplies up to 160 kilometers behind the front.
Russia is advancing less and less
One of the data that the ISW highlights most is the slowdown in Russian territorial advance.
According to their estimates, Russia earned a daily average of 2.9 square kilometers in the first months of 2026. In the same period of 2025 advanced about 9.76 kilometers daily squares.
The difference is enormous. In addition, April 2026 left a particularly symbolic fact: Ukraine recovered more territory than it lost for the first time since the counterattack in the summer of 2023.
Meanwhile, Russian casualties continue to grow. The ISW estimates that Moscow loses between 30,000 and 40,000 dead or wounded soldiers a montha figure that would begin to exceed the rate of replacement through recruitment.
The real change is in drones
The great transformation of the front would not be coming through tanks or aviation, but through drones. Ukraine has radically changed its strategy since spring 2026: It no longer focuses solely on attacking combat positions, but on destroying Russian logistics very far from the front.
Fuel trucks, ammunition depots and supply routes are being hit up to 100 miles behind Russian lines. Especially important is the pressure on the M-14 and M-18 highways, essential for connecting Crimea with Russian forces in the south.
The effect is twofold: slowing down supplies and forcing Russia to disperse defensive resources.
Hornet drone seriously worries Russia
Part of this advantage would be linked to the new American drone Horneta system that combines artificial intelligence, connectivity via Starlink and resistance to electronic interference.
According to Russian military bloggers cited by the ISW, Russian electronic warfare capabilities are having difficulty neutralizing it. And that is key.
For much of the war, Russia had managed to limit many Ukrainian drones through signal jamming. He Hornet reduces some of that advantage and forces Moscow to develop new countermeasures.
Russian analysts themselves acknowledge that adapting effective systems could take between six and twelve months.
Ukraine moves armored vehicles again
Perhaps the most important data for the ISW is not the drones themselves, but what they allow you to do. For the first time in a long time, Ukraine would be able to move armored vehicles relatively close to the front without being destroyed immediately by Russian drones.
In the Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukrainian units have advanced up to 19 kilometers behind Russian lines using armored vehicles. That would have been nearly impossible a year ago, when drone dominance made mechanized movements extremely dangerous.
The ISW believes that this may be the beginning of a new phase: less static trench warfare and more rapid tactical maneuvers. Although he warns that this window may be temporary until Russia adapts its technology again.
“The environment changes” also within Russia
The pressure would no longer be only military. Russian journalist Andrey Gurkov assures that psychological changes are beginning to be seen within Russia, especially due to the increase in air attacks and alarms in Russian territory. “In dozens of Russian cities, air raid sirens sound at night”he explained in a podcast with German journalist Paul Ronzheimer.
According to Gurkov, many Russian citizens are beginning to feel that war is not far away: “I never thought the war would reach us”. For the analyst, public perception would be changing slowly: “The environment changes.”
The economy and bureaucracy worry the Kremlin
Economic wear and tear is also beginning to appear more frequently even within Russian discourse. Some parliamentarians and economists close to the system already recognize that maintaining the military effort indefinitely could end up seriously straining the economy.
But Gurkov points out another even more delicate risk for the Kremlin: internal bureaucratic wear and tear, administrative delays and passive sabotage within the state apparatus itself. “It is a typical disease of dictatorships,” he says.
The ISW believes that Ukraine has a “limited window”
Despite the relative optimism, the ISW also issues an important warning. According to the think tank, Ukraine has not yet won the war nor does it yet have the capacity for large strategic operations. Russia continues to have superiority in resources, population and military production.
But he does believe that kyiv now has a temporary opportunity while Moscow tries to adapt to the new scenario of drones and logistical attacks. That is why he calls on Western allies to accelerate military support “precisely at the moment when Russia begins to suffer setbacks on the battlefield.”
The big unknown is how long this advantage will last. Because the entire Ukrainian war has been marked by rapid cycles of innovation: One side finds technological advantage, the other adapts and the balance shifts again. And right now, according to the ISW, it is Ukraine that seems to have temporarily taken the initiative.
