In the survey released in May, before the ‘Dark Horse’ case, the two appeared technically tied, with the son of former president Bolsonaro numerically ahead.
RealTime Big Data research released this Monday (1st) on the presidential race shows the leadership of the PT president and pre-candidateLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in 1st and 2nd shifts against the senator and PL pre-candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro. In projections of 1st roundLula has 38% and Flávio Bolsonaro 31%. In projections of second roundLula has 45% contra 40% of the PL senator.
In the survey released in May, before the “Dark Horse’ case, within the margin of error, which is 2 pp, with Flávio numerically ahead, with 44% and Lula with 43%. The same technical tie scenario had been recorded in the March survey, with Lula numerically ahead, with 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 41%.
Regarding the other pre-candidates for Palácio do Planalto, the research released this Monday shows the following in the first round scenario:
- Renan Santos (Missão) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) score 6% each;
- Romeu Zema (Novo) has 4%;
- Aécio Neves (PSDB) and Joaquim Barbosa (DC) register 3% each;
In projections of second roundo The tightest scenario for Lula would be against Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. Against the former governor of Goiás, Lula and Caiado appear tied with 43% each. Against Romeu Zema, there is a technical draw, within the margin of error, with Lula scoring 43% and Earth 40%.
no cheese rejectionLula and Flávio Bolsonaro appear on leadership with 48% each. They are followed by: Aécio Neves (45%)Whitewashed (39%)Low (35%)Renan Santos (28%) and Joaquim Barbosa (27%).
The research also says that 48% of those interviewed are tired of the polarization between PT and Bolsonarism and would like to see a third way in this presidential race.
2,000 interviews were carried out across the country, between March 29th and 30th. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points and the confidence level is 95%. The research is registered under protocol BR-05864/2026.
