A survey by the confederation projects a real growth of 6.5% in revenue compared to the 2022 World Cup
The (National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism) estimates that it will inject R$4.32 billion into Brazilian retail trade. The survey, released on Monday (June 1, 2026), projects a real growth of 6.5% in revenue compared to the 2022 World Cup.
The advance is supported by the significant improvement in the job market and the slowdown in inflation in the last 4 years, factors that offset the restrictive credit scenario and high interest rates in the country. Here is the study (PDF – 964 kB).
Below, the detailed projection numbers by segment:
- hypermarkets and supermarkets: R$2.97 billion (almost 70% of total sales);
- clothing and accessories: R$803.7 million;
- articles for personal and domestic use: R$262.6 million;
- information and communication technology: R$198.5 million;
- furniture and household appliances: R$80.2 million.
The president of the CNC-Sesc-Senac System, José Roberto Tadros, assesses that leisure consumption moves the calendar, but ponders the cost of money.
“Every 4 years, the mobilization around football especially boosts the trade of electronics, even though consumer purchasing power is below expectations. This relative retraction has a direct explanation: the severe financing conditions. Since September 2025, the Brazilian economy has faced one of the most intense cycles of monetary tightening in the last 20 years, with basic interest rates at a level higher than what would be appropriate to stimulate growth”he stated.
Despite the tournament’s proximity, the traditional race for televisions faces financial obstacles. According to the IPCA-15 (Extended National Consumer Price Index 15), the average price of TV sets fell 18.9% from 2022 to 2026.
However, the search for Smart TVs in e-commerce in May it is still 15.6% lower than that seen on the eve of the Qatar World Cup.
The discouragement of purchasing durable goods reflects monetary policy. The current rate (Special Settlement and Custody System) is 14.5% per year, above the 12.75% recorded in 2022. Furthermore, the average interest rate for individuals exceeds 61% per year, compared to less than 50% 4 years ago, says the CNC.
INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT
The chief economist at , Fabio Bentes, points out that the momentum in retail comes from the improvement in income and employment, according to data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics.
“The CNC’s moderate optimism for general retail is supported by some other important numbers that IBGE’s Continuous PNAD shows us: between the 2nd quarter of 2022 and the 1st quarter of 2026, the unemployment rate in the country fell substantially from 9.3% to 6.1%, while the real average wage bill increased by 28.8%. This and lower-than-expected inflation are a good sign for the retail, offsetting these excessive interest rates”said Bentes.
Inflation, which had accumulated an increase of 12.2% in 12 months in May 2022, cooled to 4.6% in the same period in 2026, allowing commercial revenue to be concentrated on the immediate consumption of food, drinks and lower value items.
