When the latest Middle East war began, between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran, those involved were watching. Three months later, the Gulf kingdom is under suffocating pressure from Washington to choose a side.
Thymus
The sultanate’s intention to participate in Iran’s plan to control the Straits of Hormuz, which envisages the creation of a mechanism to jointly manage payments from passing ships, is cited as the reason for the increasing US pressure. This is a development that Oman itself categorically denies, but it is confirmed by the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and reports from American security services.
Such an action would lead to the de facto divestment of the legal status governing the passage critical to the global economy as a free international sea lane. Consequently, it would challenge in the most practical way any US leverage in the current negotiations with Iran, in which the opening of the major trade hub plays a central role.
Washington’s reaction was furious. US President Donald Trump himself directly threatened the country with bombing. “It’s international waters and Oman will behave like everyone else, otherwise we’ll have to blow it up,” he said on Wednesday (27/05) in response to a journalist’s question during a cabinet meeting. This was followed by Finance Minister Scott Bessent, who threatened Muscat with financial sanctions. “Oman in particular should know that the Ministry of Finance will target anyone involved – indirectly or directly – in the application of tolls in the Straits and that any accomplice will be sanctioned,” Besed warned in a post on X.
Another Switzerland
The US stance has come as a legitimate shock to Omani officials, with analysts pointing out that the White House’s rhetoric is indicative of the impasse the US administration has reached over ending the war. “Trump’s threats against Oman are a sign of his desperation and his inability to achieve the results he hoped for in Iran,” he said while speaking, estimating that what the American president says “is nothing more than mere words.” To the above should be added the information that Trump’s discomfort towards Oman was exacerbated by an interview of the Omani foreign minister on the American CBS network, during which he stated that the two parties are close to an agreement, a claim strongly denied by the presidential environment.
It is worth noting that as a state entity, Oman is traditionally identified with the principles of neutrality and mediation, in a region prone to intra-state and inter-state conflicts. Before the war began, the country hosted indirect US-Iran talks on both the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Previously, specifically during the period 2012-2015 it had hosted the top secret diplomatic contacts between the Obama administration and the Iranian leadership, which laid the foundations for the historic international agreement on Iran’s nuclear program (JCPOA). The tradition of communication with the theocratic regime in Tehran dates back to the mid-1980s, when Oman mediated the end of the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq (1980-88).
It is this foreign policy of positive neutrality that has gifted the sultanate, which has been ruled continuously since the mid-180s by the royal house of Al Bou Said and in terms of per capita income, the nickname “Switzerland of the Middle East”, in a parallel with the robust and diplomatically neutral Central European country.
Its ability to exert diplomatic influence is enhanced by its geographical location, at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, which is a strategic advantage, as it has ports on the Indian Ocean (such as the Port of Salalah and the Port of Duqm) that allow goods to be transported directly from Africa and Asia, bypassing the Straits of Hormuz and providing an alternative – albeit insufficient – solution to food and energy security.
Incentives and possibilities
Beyond the timing, the escalation of tension reflects Washington’s skepticism about the Omani state’s stance in the current conflict. Before the rumored agreement to impose tolls on the Straits of Hormuz, Oman was the only state that abstained from a resolution submitted by the Gulf states to the UN Security Council at the initiative of the Emirates, which sought the mediation of the highest executive body to stop Iranian attacks on the territorial territory of other states and the imposition of tolls.
After all, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said was the only one who congratulated the new Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, while the neutrality of the country was not changed even by the attacks of Iranian drones on its territory, for which Tehran was not named. As a result, to the criticism of the USA is added that of states like Saudi Arabia or the UAE, which accuse Oman of inaction that weakens any concept of collective pressure towards the Islamic Republic.
Oman counters criticism that during the three-month standoff it provided humanitarian aid to crews of ships stranded in the straits, stressing that it still honors its commitment to the principle of freedom of navigation. Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, Omani officials point out that their refusal to confront Iran is aimed at keeping open channels of communication, necessary for a temporary suspension of hostilities or an end to the war.
In this sense, it is not the attitude that the sultanate maintains even now, expressed through the mouth of the Minister of Information, Abdullah bin Nasser Al Harashi: “Oman is ready to work with the United States and all responsible partners to promote stability, prevent disturbances and protect our common strategic interests.”
Still others, such as the analyst with deep knowledge of Iran, Alex Vatanka, doubt Oman’s ability to respond to the new data through old recipes. “For years Oman’s greatest strength has been its ability to talk to everyone, constantly creating space for dialogue for the parties involved. But the Middle East is entering a phase where the traditional role of the kingdom must change. Muscat continues to enjoy Tehran’s trust and Washington’s respect – a rare alignment. He should use this influence to urge Iran towards strategic restraint and make the US realize that any maximalist demands will lead to further escalation,” he noted while speaking to the Times of London, recalling at the same time that Iran is an important partner of Oman, while the US is the sultanate’s most important security partner.
