On Wednesday (June 3) it was announced that a cease-fire agreement had been reached between and . Many were quick to let out a sigh of relief. Premature unfortunately, it seems.
Indeed, the fourth round of negotiations held in Washington between the governments of the two countries, with the mediation of America of course, appeared at first reading to have some effect. According to the joint “Washington Declaration”, as it is called, the agreed “constitute steps that”. In fact, a new round of discussions has already been planned for June 22.
The key points of this ceasefire framework provide that Hezbollah will cease to operate in southern Lebanon and specific “pilot” zones will be created, which the official Lebanese army will take control of.
What is not provided
There is no plan to withdraw Israeli troops, who occupy about a fifth of the country. Also, the statement does not say exactly what these “pilot” zones will be, nor does it answer the larger question of what will happen to the approximately one million internally displaced residents from southern Lebanon, who cannot return to their place as long as there is absolute security and the Israeli army remains in the area. In addition, a significant portion of their homes and crops, as well as basic infrastructure, have been destroyed.
But the main thing is that the interlocutors counted without the… hotelier. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the truce would take effect once all parties agreed. The negotiations, however, took place without the participation of Hezbollah, because America and Israel do not talk with terrorist organizations, and the organization itself considers these negotiations futile and humiliating.
Therefore, it is not particularly surprising that Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, saying that “we have not made any commitment to anything and we will not stop the resistance as long as the occupation continues.” He also stated that the agreement must be comprehensive and complete because Israel reserves the right to strike targets if it feels threatened, and that they do not accept any differentiation between southern Lebanon and the rest of the country. Finally, he characterized the Declaration as “a road map for the extermination of a part of the Lebanese people and the enslavement of the rest”.
For its part, Israel did not show any particular inclination to find a real solution either. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz was quick to clarify his country’s position on what was agreed and said Israel reserved the right to strike Beirut if Hezbollah carried out strikes in northern Israel.
Because the truce cannot be enforced
Once both sides were clearly positioned, they continued unmolested to exchange fire inside Lebanon. So the question that arises is what is the point of announcing a cease-fire that cannot be enforced?
On the one hand, for reasons of impressions. All three governments want to show their public that they are working towards peace. They are the only ones trying to find a solution. Hence the joint communiqué states that “all countries reaffirmed that the future of the relationship between Israel and Lebanon must be decided by the two sovereign governments. They rejected any attempt, by any state or non-state actor, to hold Lebanon’s future hostage.” The final strand is a message to Iran and Hezbollah.
The government of Lebanon wants to find a way to end the drama of this war, since the country is on the brink of economic and humanitarian disaster. Although he knows he cannot force Hezbollah to implement the ceasefire, he wants to show the Lebanese people that the responsibility for all the ills lies with the Shiite organization.
The logic of having “pilot” zones, in which the official army will supervise, aims to regain at least some control of the country. This is not that simple though.
The country’s official military, which has historically not been involved in the conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah, is underfunded, poorly equipped and dependent on foreign aid. It is not in a position to disarm Hezbollah, on the one hand because it is militarily weaker and on the other hand because it is in danger of splitting, due to the fact that it is made up of 30-40% Shiites.
Public opinion in the country is divided, and there is a danger that if Hezbollah gets pushed too far, there will be internal bloody conflict or even civil war between the different communities, namely Christians, Sunnis and Shiites.
Israel, for its part, desperately wants to neutralize Hezbollah. He knows that the talks with Lebanon lack real substance, but he has no reason not to attend them – because America is asking for it, because it shows good will to the international community, and because he has nothing to lose by agreeing with the Lebanese president on a common line of pressure on Hezbollah. At the same time, it continues military operations.
It should be noted that the factor of the Israeli elections does not help. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also under pressure due to the planned parliamentary elections in the autumn, in which he needs a total victory against Hezbollah.
For President Trump, the conflicts in Lebanon would be uninteresting, even boring, if it were not part of the puzzle of developments with Iran. Iran has made clear since the start of the war that events in Lebanon – and the protection of Hezbollah – are integral to any truce between Washington and Tehran. Therefore, no one fell from the clouds when, after the agreement was announced, the Revolutionary Guards reiterated their steadfast position that there can be no peace in the region unless Israeli troops are fully withdrawn from Lebanon.
A few days before all this happened, Netanyahu threatened to bomb the Dahiye district of Beirut, which would be a major escalation of the war. Iran’s response was immediate and unremarkable. He threatened heavy blows to northern Israel, a “freeze” of all talks with the US, as well as a blockade of the Bab al-Madeb Straits, the Red Sea trade passage.
A heated phone call from Trump to the Israeli prime minister followed, and the bombings in Beirut did not happen, at least for now. Instead, the announcement of the so-called truce followed. Truce from whom?
