Genial/Quaest research released this Wednesday (10) shows that the president () opened an advantage over the senator (-RJ) in a second round simulation and would beat his rival by 44% to 38% of the votes.
The survey is the first by the institute to be published after the case. Whites, nulls and declarations that they will not vote total 14%. Undecided are 4%.
In May, in , the current president appeared with 42%, while the PL congressman had 41%, a situation that constituted a tie in the margin of error. White, null and those who say they won’t vote were 14%, and undecided, 3%.
Quaest interviewed 2,004 voters aged 16 and over through personal, home and in-person interviews carried out from June 5th to 8th. The confidence level for the estimates is 95%, and the maximum expected margin of error is around 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The search is registered under code BR-07661/2026.
In the first round simulation, Aldo Rebelo, expelled from DC, and Hertz Dias (PSTU) left, and the names of Aécio Neves (PSDB), Edmilson Costa (PCB), Joaquim Barbosa (DC) and Heró Bezerra (PRTB) were tested for the first time.
Also in this scenario, Lula maintains the lead, with 39% of voting intentions, followed by Flávio, with 29%.
The performance is measured after the announcement in which the senator asked for money to finance the film “Dark Horse”, an autobiography of his father, Jair. The former banker transferred R$61 million.
The other names suggested did not reach double digits. (Mission) and () score 3%. Aécio and () have 2%, and (), Joaquim Barbosa (DC) and (UP) appear with 1%.
(Mobiliza), Edmilson Costa (PCB), and Heró Bezerra (PRTB) did not score.
The survey also tested the names of Renan, Zema and Caiado in alternative second round scenarios against Lula. The PT member beats the pre-candidate of the MBL party with 45% to 31%, and Zema and Caiado, by 45% to 35%
Master Case
The institute also questioned interviewees about the Banco Master case. A portion of 60% said that, from what they heard or learned, the conversations between Flávio and Vorcaro raised suspicions about illegal attitudes, against 19% who responded that the dialogue was normal.
In the opinion of 17%, the senator was right to ask for financing for the film about his father, there is no big deal. Another 65%, on the other hand, stated that child 01 made a mistake and should have avoided the conversation.
Rejection
Lula and Flávio continue to accumulate the highest percentage of rejection. The survey shows that 53% say they know and would not vote for the PT pre-candidate. In the case of the former president’s son, it is 56%. The indices are similar to those recorded in May.
Aécio has a rejection rate of 54%, Zema, 29%, Caiado, 32%, and Renan, 20%, and Joaquim Barbosa, 17%. Augusto Cury appears with 16%, Edmilson Costa, with 9%; Heró Bezerra, with 10%; Hertz Dias, with 8%, and Samara Martins, 10%.
Government assessment
For 38%, President Lula is running a bad or terrible government, while 34% say the work is good or excellent. 26% rated the management as regular, and 2% did not know or did not respond. The indices remain stable in relation to May.
