A lot of sweat has had to be done to prepare the 52nd summit of the seven industrialized democracies that starts this Monday and ends this Wednesday in the French seaside resort of Évian-les-Bains. The main problems were put USA. The White House asked to alter the initial calendar so that it did not coincide with the Donald Trump’s 80th birthday celebrations this Sunday. The president did not plan to miss the mixed martial arts macro sports eventthe UFC Freedom 250, for which a stage higher than the White House itself has been erected on its south lawn.
These two locations perfectly symbolize the historical moment that the G7 is going throughformed by United States, Canada, Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom and Japanin addition to the European Union. The first, Eviana city that represents old aristocratic Europe, the world of the pasta retreat famous for its mineral water and located on the shores of Lake Geneva facing the Alps. The second, the violent martial arts event in front of the White House, showing what is new in America: the megalomania and the disruptive touch of an American president who has come to break things, including old structures such as the group of industrialized countries.
“The G7 began in the 1980s as a conversation between finance ministers and then escalated to meetings of the leaders of the member countries, at a time of strong instability in financial markets and lack of coordination between the main actors. It was never clear that this made much of a difference in material terms, but it did. It mattered that they talked to each otherthat they understood what each one was going to do and that they did not work against each other,” he tells EL PERIÓDICO Robert Wolfeprofessor emeritus at Queen’s University, in Canada. “That coordination is still very important. The problem is that it is not going to happen with Donald Trump in the White House: it is totally unpredictableacts on a whim and the United States no longer knows what its role is in the world. It’s not the G7’s fault; is consequence of what is happening in Washington. And, without the United States involved, everything becomes much more difficult.”
It was seen at the previous summit, in the tourist town of Kananaskis, in Canada. Donald Trump’s return to the presidency sparked a erosion in the internal cohesion of the G7which analysts went on to describe as G6+1. United States against the world for its unilateral tariff policies and for its threats of annexation of Canada. For the first time, the summit concluded without the adoption of a joint statement by the leaders, unable to agree on a common vision on international trade, collective security and the energy transition. Trump left early due to the 12-day war that he had launched with Israel against Iran. This prevented a scheduled meeting with the Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski. All disorder.
A G7 with China?
The G7’s ability to dictate global financial or business guidelines It has eroded substantially over the years. The GDP of the seven countries that make it up has fallen from 63% of global GDP in 1992 to just 29% in 2024. Less than half. The group no longer represents the majority of global economic activity, which limits the effectiveness of its decisions if they are not coordinated with other poles of power such as the BRICS block: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
In preparation for the Évian summit, President Emmanuel Macron proposed to informally invite by videoconference to Chinese President Xi Jinpingto discuss trade imbalances. However, this initiative was categorically rejected by Japan. There is no internal consensus on whether the G7 can try to integrate China into its talks.
Some see the G7 precisely as a counterweight to China. Canada, for example, led the group in Alliance for the Production of Critical Minerals in the face of China’s dominance of the supply of rare earths. Beijing has used it as a trade weapon in the face of the tariff war launched by Trump, threatening to cut sales of these key minerals for technological products. And it has worked for them: Trump withdrew the bulk of the so-called reciprocal tariffs.
“The world is much more complex and there are many more countries that count today in the international order, but the big change is China”says Robert Wolfe. “China now has enormous weight in the world economy, and the problem is that the United States is unable to recognize how important it is. China has never been invited to the G7and it is not even clear that she would agree to go if she were invited; but his absence is in the heart of the G7 problem: The group’s economies continue to weigh heavily, but without China they can do much less. The biggest blockage in many international economic affairs is between the United States and China, and you would both benefit from a regular conversationmature and structured like the one prepared by the G7″.
Macron, rotating president of the G7, insists on bringing closer positions with China on global trade imbalances. Given the impossibility of inviting Xi to the summit, even virtually, he has prepared a prior call, according to several officials from G7 countries, Politico reports.
The objective is to involve China in the discussion on the global economy. Paris defends a less accusatory approach against the Asian giant than is usual in the G7. He maintains that the problem is not limited to Chinese overproductionbut also includes the lack of investment in the European Union and the excess consumption in the United States.
The G7 is not dead, but it can no longer act as a kind of conductor of trade and economic policies global as in the past. It cannot govern the world, but it helps global industrialized democracies find a common position and try to channel it towards the rest of the powers.
China is out, India and Brazil gain weight; Russia was expelled after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the United States, under Trump, is unpredictable.
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