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Supercomputer places the Brazilian team as the fifth favorite to win the race, with a 7% chance of winning and a 13.5% chance of reaching the final. Until then, along the way, there are strong possibilities that Ronaldo will meet Messi again.
Portugal appears as the fifth main favorite to win the 2026 World Cup, according to the supercomputer, with a 7% chance of winning the title and a 13.5% chance of reaching the final.
The national team is favorite to win Group K and, in this scenario, they will have to face a third-placed team in the round of 32, with Croatia, Ghana, Panama or England as the most likely hypotheses.
If you move forward, the path may include Switzerland or Canada in the round of 16, Argentina in the quarters, England or Brazil in the semi-finals and, in a possible final, teams such as Spain, France, Germany or the Netherlands in a possible final.
Fifth favorite
Portugal still only has the first three opponents guaranteed in the 2026 World Cup, but the draw and the FIFA calendar already allow us to outline the team’s possible path to the final.
Democratic Republic of Congo, Uzbekistan and Colombia will be the Portuguese rivals in Group K. From then on, everything will depend on the final classification, but Opta’s projections place Portugal in a favorable position to advance in the test.
According to the supercomputer, Portugal is the fifth leading candidate to win the World Cup, behind Spain, France, England and Argentina.
The model gives the national team a 7% chance of winning the title and a 13.5% chance of reaching the final. Despite not appearing at the top of the list, Portugal appears ahead of historic teams such as Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands.
Spain is considered the main favorite, with a 15.6% chance of becoming world champion, followed by France, with 12.8%. England and Argentina appear just above 10%, in a situation in which the chances are quite divided between the main candidates.
16th: hello, group L
The most likely scenario for Portugal is to win Group K. Opta gives 59% of chances for the national team to finish in first place, against 27.4% for second place and 10.2% for third. THE Elimination in the group stage is seen as unlikely: the model attributes only 5.4% to this scenario.
If they confirm favoritism and finish first, Portugal will face 16th final a third-place finisher. The most likely opponent will come from Group L, where are England, Croatia, Ghana and Panama. In this scenario, Opta points to Ghana, Panama and Croatia as the strongest hypotheses. England appears as a much less likely possibility at this stageas they are favorites to win their group.
The Portuguese record against these potential opponents is positive, recalls . Against Ghana, Portugal won both games played, both in World Cups: 2-1 in 2014 and 3-2 in 2022, with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring in both. Against Panama, there is only one friendly, in 2012, which ended in a 2-0 Portuguese victory. With Croatia, the balance also favors Portugal, both in the European Championships and in the Nations League. Against England, the record is more balanced, but the team came out on top in the last major official clashes, including the 2004 Euro Cup and the 2006 World Cup, both decided on penalties.
What if Portugal doesn’t win the group?
If Portugal finishes second or third in the group, the path changes, but will continue very linked to Group L. If you are second, you must find the second place in that group, with the Croatia emerging as the most likely opponent. If they come through as one of the best third parties, the toughest scenario will be to face the winner of Group L, most likely England.
Most likely: Modrić and company
Based on Opta’s global calculations, Portugal’s most likely opponent in the round of 16 is Croatia, in 24% of scenarios. Next come Ghana, Panama and England.
Eighths: hello, old friend?
In the round of 16, the path could cross Portugal with the winner of a tie involving the first place in the Group B, which includes Switzerland, Canada, Qatar and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
A Switzerland is the main candidate to win this group, followed by Canada. Recent memory is favorable to the team: in the 2022 World Cup, Portugal thrashed Switzerland 6-1, in one of the most memorable games of the last Portuguese campaign in the final stages.
Rooms: historic duel
The quarter-finals could bring one of the most publicized duels in modern football: Portugal against Argentina.
This scenario would put Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi face to face again.
A Argentina emerges as favorite in this possible clashalthough without an overwhelming advantage in projections.
Socks: England?
In the semi-finals, the most likely opponent will be able to come out of a branch where they appear England and Brazil.
Opta points to a course in which Brazil overtakes Japan and then the winner of Norway-Ecuador, while England advances against DR Congo and then the winner of Mexico-Senegal.
In a possible duel between the English and Brazilians, the model gives an advantage to England, which could face Portugal again in a high-risk semi-final.
Final: the giants
On the other side of the table are some of the main candidates for the title, including Spain and France, as well as Germany, the Netherlands and Moroccothe team that eliminated Portugal in the 2022 World Cup.
Thus, if the team reaches the final, it could face one of the great European powers or a team that has already brought it recent disappointments.
Remember that this path outlined here is just a projection, dependent on several variants.
Portugal debuts in the 2026 World Cup this Wednesday against DR Congo, at 6pm. This is Portugal’s 9th appearance in the finals. The best result remains 3rd place in 1966, in the absolute debut in World Cups. In 2006, Portugal was 4th; in 2022, they fell in the quarterfinals to Morocco.
