The shock in oil supply in the Gulf should bring down global demand before flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalize, said the IEA (International Energy Agency) in a monthly report released this Wednesday (17).
According to the entity, the offer tends to recover with strengthreaching 8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2027following this year’s contraction caused by the war in the Middle East.
Although the signature expected for this week represents the most relevant advance in negotiations since the start of the conflict, the IEA assesses that the full resumption of traffic through the region’s main maritime route is likely to take months.
The agency revised its projection and now estimates that global oil demand will fall by 1.1 million bpd this year, compared to the previous forecast of a decline of 420,000 bpd, pressured by high prices and severe supply disruptions.
For 2027, the IEA predicts that demand growth will return to 2 million bpd, as trade flows normalize, prices decline and the economic scenario improves.
O The Wall Street Journal reported that the deal would include waivers of U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales and an end to U.S. and Iranian blockades on the Strait of Hormuz, although full terms have not yet been released.
“Although the details of the agreement still need to be clarified and several issues remain outstanding, it is an encouraging step forward,” the IEA said in the document. “Full recovery will not be immediate as mines will have to be removed from key shipping routes and supply chains will take time to normalize.”
The conflict, which began on February 28, has paralyzed navigation in the strait, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas normally flows.
Industry analysts estimate that complete normalization will require time due to logistical and security obstacles, from repositioning ships and rescheduling ports to restoring insurance coverage.
The IEA estimates that global supply will fall by 3.9 million bpd in 2026, with a significant portion of supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, before recovering in 2027. In May, global production was 13.6 million bpd below pre-war levels.
Exports from Gulf producers fell 1.1 million bpd and remained almost 15 million bpd below the February level. For 2027, the forecast is that OPEC+ production will increase by 5.5 million bpd and that supply outside the group will grow by 2.5 million bpd, totaling 8 million bpd.
Iran’s exports were particularly hard hit by the American blockade, falling 1.4 million bpd to just 230,000 bpd.
Part of this loss was offset by an increase in ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, a route often used to mask the origin of cargo, with volumes increasing in May and reaching up to 1.8 million bpd in early June.
The reduction in observed global stocks accelerated in May, to 143 million barrels, raising the average withdrawals since the start of the conflict to 3.8 million bpd. OECD government stocks fell by 163 million barrels, to the lowest level since December 1990, according to the IEA.
*Content translated with the help of Artificial Intelligence, reviewed and edited by the Broadcast editorial team, Grupo Estado’s real-time news system.
