Putin calls elections in Russia. What to expect?

Elections on September 20th. Several analysts predict that, without manipulation of results, it will be almost impossible to renew the majority of the current government, which is approaching historic lows in voting intentions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called this Tuesday legislative elections in Russia for the day September 20thwhen polls have revealed a downward trend in his popularity and that of the government party.

Putin, who was re-elected in 2024 for another six-year term, signed the decree, according to the Russian state’s legal information portal.

As voting intentions for the political force that governs fell to less than 30% in recent months, close to historic lows of 26.4%, in August 2021.

According to opinion studies, the main reasons cited by voters are the war against Ukraine and resulting enemy attacks with drones, in addition to the increase in the cost of living and internet and social media blocks.

At the same time, opposition parties have gained adherents, precisely because they are against certain measures adopted by the leadership of the Russian Federation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy published a message this week estimating that the ruling party in Russia had just 22% voting intentions, compared to almost 50% obtained in the 2021 legislative elections.

As a rule, the political force that dominates Putin’s regime benefits from low voter turnoutespecially in large cities, but several analysts predict that it will be almost impossible to renew their majority, unless the authorities manipulate the election results.

Medvedev and Lavrov

The legislative ones, however, are unlikely to lead to significant political changes: they will just be a new stage in the transformation of the same regime. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t risks for Putin.

Although there are almost two dozen registered parties, only 12 will be able to compete without additional procedures. Among them are United Russia, the Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, the New People, Just Russia — For the Truth and Yabloko. Out of the five forces already represented in the Duma, only the Pensioners’ Party and the Greens seem to have any chance of overcoming the 5% barrier. THE United Russia victorywhich currently holds 314 seats — around 70% of the lower house — is taken for granted.

The national list, according to , should be headed by Dmitri Medvedevformer Russian President and current Vice President of the Security Council, who became one of the most aggressive voices in pro-war discourse. Among the names foreseen are also the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrovfigures linked to Vladimir Putin’s presidential campaign and representatives associated with war and patriotic mobilization.