Before the global community could heave a sigh of relief at the deal – already the first clouds were making their appearance. A planned weekend meeting between US Vice President Jay D. Vance and Iranian officials in Switzerland has been postponed for the time being.
The White House spokesman said that “the organizational part of the negotiations has never been simple or predictable.” In fact, the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding”, is getting water from everywhere.
Lebanon: The “ground zero” that threatens the truce
Let’s look at the first point, which is also the reason for postponing the meeting.
“The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this Memorandum of Understanding, declare the immediate and final cessation of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” In the same paragraph, the guarantee of the territorial integrity of Lebanon is mentioned.
Except that their allies, i.e. Israel in the case of the United States, and Iran’s Hezbollah do not put their signature somewhere. Israel in particular has made sure to make this clear from the very beginning. Expected, given that this initial agreement is perceived as disastrous, not only by the Netanyahu government, but also by the opposition as a whole, as well as by Israeli society.
The result is that the Israelis immediately after the deal escalated their attacks on Lebanon and the Iranians said they would not proceed with talks unless there was a real ceasefire there as well. Then, on June 19, with the mediation of the American president, but the meeting in the Swiss Alps had already been postponed
An unsolved problem
The problem is chronic. Hezbollah was founded in response to the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon in the 1980s and has been seen as an existential threat to Israel from the start. He became actively involved in this war when America and Israel attacked Iran and killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials.
In these months of war, while on the contrary, Tehran firmly maintains that a truce in Lebanon is a necessary condition for any agreement. On paper, he succeeded. In practice things are very difficult and Lebanon is the first big thorn in this very vague agreement.
The Trump-Netanyahu rift and the political game of survival
The big picture is that Trump was convinced by Netanyahu that he could attack Iran and control it relatively quickly and easily, but it didn’t work out for him. He is a businessman, a real estate agent, at some point he recognized that not only he can’t win, but he loses every day and decided to close a deal to end it.
But Netanyahu, who is a multiple loser from this deal, needs a win against Hezbollah. Disarming the Shiite organization and ensuring the safety of his residents in the North of the country is his last card for his political survival.
Trump did not hide his irritation towards the Israeli prime minister. At first he said about Netanyahu “I don’t know if he will stand in the elections (to be held in Israel in the fall), because he is a prime minister of war”. Then, when asked by Israeli media if he would support him in the election, he said “I will probably support him, but I will have to evaluate all the candidates. He should be more reasonable.”
Will Syria take over Hezbollah?
Criticism was not limited to the face of the Israeli Prime Minister. s, saying characteristically: “Too many people are being killed and you don’t need to tear down an apartment building every time you’re looking for someone, because there are many people inside those apartment buildings and not all of them are Hezbollah, I can tell you that for sure.” And he added that “I suggested Israel let Syria handle Hezbollah, because to be honest with you, I think they will do a better job.”
It is not clear if he actually meant Syria taking military action, or if he was referring to the actions Damascus is already taking to control the supply of arms to Hezbollah, which is conducted through its territory. In politics nothing is improbable, considering that the current leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, until 2024 was awarded by the US for 10 million dollars, as one of the most dangerous terrorists in the world.
Israel is not backing down
In any case, Trump has been particularly annoyed by Netanyahu, because by attacking Hezbollah, on the one hand, he did everything he could to spoil the deal with Iran, and on the other hand, he spoils the narrative at home where he is trying to “sell” the memorandum as a very good deal, which stops Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
The agreement is supposed to be in force from Thursday, June 18, and the 60-day clock for further negotiations is ticking, but in Lebanon the conflicts have not stopped. To leave no doubt as to Israel’s intentions, Israeli forces have released a map showing the extension of their zone of control into southern Lebanon.
Vance and the critical mission – why he’s furious with Israel
The word has now passed to vice president Jay De Vance, who has taken on the responsibility of leading the technical discussions for the next two months. His goal is to have a substantial and complete agreement that will bring peace, if not to the entire region, at least to the Straits of Hormuz, so that the global economy does not collapse.
but it is about his “ticket” for the American presidency in 2028. A failure now may decide his political future. Marco Rubio is waiting in the corner to claim the Republican nomination.
Vance, aware of the mission’s critical nature, launched an unprecedented attack on Israel’s stance, calling on it to “wake up and smell” the reality in which it finds itself. “What exactly is your proposal? You are a country of 9 million people. You can’t just kill to solve every single national security problem you have,” he said characteristically, while he did not hesitate to remind them that 2/3 of the taxpayers.
How far is the US willing to go?
The question is, can America rein in Netanyahu’s policy on Lebanon? It can. This is what the vice president said, indirectly threatening, referring to Israel’s military dependence on the US.
But whether America is willing to pull the military rug from under Netanyahu’s feet, if the latter decides to derail the Memorandum, is a very big question. Such a move would be far-fetched, but that’s what our eyes have seen lately.
