With the third and final round of the first phase of the World Cup starting this Wednesday (24), any stumble could have serious consequences for selections: from one most complicated confrontation until tournament elimination.
After the first 48 matches played, there are still few certainties: only six teams are already classified (Mexico, United States, Argentina, Germany, Colombia, France and Norway) and others five have already been eliminated (Jordan, Haiti, Türkiye, Tunisia and Panama).
Unlike the other ranked selections, Colombia, France e Norway They do not have first place guaranteed and the last two will compete for the leadership of Group I on Friday (26), in Boston.
The position in the first phase is not a minor issue. Finishing at the top of the group is not only of sporting interest (in principle, a more accessible first knockout clash), but also logistic (the first position of the key guarantees a shorter travel).
Double advantage
Brazil, for example, if they finish as leader of Group C, will play the round of 32 in Houston, but if they finish second they will need to travel to Monterrey, with the additional complication of changing countries.
Another favorite for the title, Spain, if they finish first in Group H, will face the second in Group J, Austria or Algeria, but if they stumble against Uruguay and finish second, they will face defending champions Argentina.
With the expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams and the new format of the tournament, in which the eight best third-placed teams from the 12 groups also advance to the second phase, the threat of combination of resultswhich had ended since FIFA decided, after the World Cup in Spain – 1982, that the matches in the last round of a group would be played at the same time.
And this will mean that, although the third round of the group stage begins this Wednesday, some teams will only find out on Saturday (27), after the end of all groups in the first stage, whether or not they will continue in the tournament.
But, as four points will almost certainly be enough to advance to the stage, in several matches the teams will know in advance what the result will be convenient for both.
Risk of Matched Games
This is the case, for example, of Paraguay x Australia on Thursday (25). The two teams have 3 points and a draw could qualify both.
“I think in a way you’re cheating if you’re looking for some kind of respite with 10 minutes left. In my opinion, that’s not right,” said Australian defender Jason Geria.
“Obviously we could both qualify with one point, but I don’t think it’s in our nature to just give in or take our foot off the gas,” he added.
Teams that enter the field later, in addition, will have the advantage of knowing which result will be necessary for classification.
And, as now the first tiebreaker criterion between teams tied in the number of points is the direct confrontation result and not the goal difference, many matches will be played with nothing at stake, such as the United States x Turkey and Argentina x Jordan, with one team already classified as group leader and the other eliminated.
Records and goals
The risks of the last round do not overshadow the almost two weeks of great football, with records and a shower of goals.
In his sixth World Cup, Argentine Lionel Messi became the com 18 goals (surpassing Miroslav Klose’s 16), while Cristiano Ronaldo became the after the two goals on Tuesday (23) in the by 5 to 0.
All the stars in the tournament have already made their mark and started a : Messi totals 5 goals, Mbappé and Haaland 4, Cristiano Ronaldo and Kane 2.
At this rate, even Frenchman Just Fontaine’s record of 13 goals in a single World Cup (1958) could fall in 2026.
