South Africa and Canada open the World Cup knockout stages this Sunday (28), at 4pm, in the newly created 32nd phase of the competition, which as of this edition has 48 participants.
Whoever wins will face Morocco or the Netherlands in the round of 16 and possibly Germany or France in the quarterfinals.
On the other side of the bracket, if they beat Japan on Monday (29) at 2pm, Brazil will face Ivory Coast or Norway in the round of 16. To reach the final, they can face England in the quarterfinals and Argentina in the semifinals.
In the knockout stage, the paths depend on two factors: the final placement after the first phase and the group in which each country fell in the draw carried out by FIFA (International Football Federation) in December 2025.
Before randomly assembling the groups, the entity had already prepared the knockout schedule, without giving details about how the decision process took place.
It was already defined, for example, that the first place in Group C (which ended up being Brazil) would face the second place in Group F (in this case, Japan).
It was also already known that the teams that finished at the top of groups A, B, D, E, G, I, K and L would play against the eight best third-placed teams, except those in the same group.
This does not mean that chance alone defined the clashes. For the draw, FIFA divided the 48 countries into four different pots according to the position in the national team rankings to prevent teams at similar levels from forming the same group.
In the first pot were the three host countries (Mexico, Canada and the United States) and the nine teams best ranked by FIFA — Brazil was in fifth place at the time.
The host teams were deliberately positioned by FIFA as the top seeds in groups A, B and D, while the other nine were drawn from groups C, E, F, G, H, I, J, K and L.
That’s why Brazil didn’t fall alongside countries like Germany, Argentina, France and Portugal.
The rest of the participating teams were distributed among the other three pots also according to the order of ranking. Each of the 12 groups was formed by a selection from each pot, respecting the condition that countries from the same continent were not together, with the exception of Europeans.
There were also two restrictions. As Spain and Argentina were the top two in the rankings on the date of the draw, they were placed in groups with different sides in the draw, which means that if they finished as leaders of their respective groups, they would only face each other in the final.
France and England, third and fourth placed respectively, were also directed to separate sides, so that a meeting could not be facilitated before the decision.
Switching favors leaders
All the leading teams in their groups have the advantage of facing, in the round of 32, teams that have had weaker campaigns, finishing in second or third position.
In the round of 16, the bracket brings together the winners of the clashes between first and third. Leaders of Groups E and I, for example, Germany and France take on two of the best third-placed teams in the round of 32 — Paraguay and Sweden, respectively — and find themselves in the round of 16 if they advance.
The first placed players who will play against seconds pick the winner of a duel between two seconds.
This is the case of Brazil, which if they beat Japan (2nd in Group F) will face Norway (2nd in Group I) or Ivory Coast (2nd in Group E) in the next phase.
Possible paths to decision
As first in Group C, the Brazilian team was on the same side as the Argentines and English in the selection. Therefore, their possible paths to the decision go through these teams, if England confirms their favoritism and finishes Group L first.
In this scenario, if the three teams advance beyond the round of 16, Brazil will face England in the quarterfinals and Argentina in the semifinals.
Portugal could also be in the Argentines’ path, if they qualify first in Group K. If they finish second, they will go to the other side of the group, which has Spain, Germany, France and the Netherlands.
In the 32nd stage, the current world champions will face Cape Verde, who finished second in Group H after Uruguay’s elimination due to a defeat to Spain. In the round of 16, if they pass, they will face Australia or Egypt.
