The resignation this week of the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmerhas injected a dose of optimism in much of the Labor Party caucus. The majority of the party’s more than 400 deputies trust that Andy Burnhamthe main candidate to succeed him, takes office next July 17 without having to participate in a primary process and begin its main task as soon as possible: regain the trust of the voters and stop the rise of the far right before the next general elections, scheduled for 2029. A task that, however, is not easy.
If her appointment as Prime Minister is confirmed, Burnham will take the reins of the Government at a time of economic weaknesswith limited growth and still high inflation. Added to this situation is their commitment to respect the electoral program that his party presented in the 2024 elections, including the strict fiscal rules set by Starmer and his economy minister, Rachel Reeves. These rules prevent the Executive from going to the debt market to finance the current expenses of the State and force it to cover any increase in public spending with tax increases or with cuts in other items.
“Difficult” tax situation
The economist Carl Emmersonformer deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and partner at the consulting firm London Economics, explains that the fiscal situation in the United Kingdom is “incredibly difficult” due to the increase in public debt in the last two decades, public services that are experiencing difficulties and the increasing number of people accessing social benefits, especially after the pandemic. Pressures to increase defense spending have added even more complexity to the situation and will face the new Labor leader with the difficult task of balance the accounts without further suffocating taxpayers.
“One of the ways in which the United Kingdom could raise taxes Without causing great damage to the economy, it would be increasing one of the great taxes that affect many people. But the Labor electoral program promised not to touch the income tax, Social Security contributions or VAT,” highlights Emmerson, who points out that there are other options to balance the accounts, but possibly less effective or with a high political cost. “The State has a wide margin to do things differently if it really wants to; the question is whether people will understand the advantages and disadvantages that this entails”.
Communication skills
Many Labor MPs are aware of the difficulties their new leader in Downing Street, but they trust that his charisma and his good communication skills help him convey the reasons for his decisions better than his predecessor. “[El nuevo primer ministro] should focus on doing what he believes is right and risk unpopularity by staying firm in your convictions“, explains the political analyst Tim Baleprofessor at Queen Mary University of London. “The worst thing you can do is propose unpopular but necessary measures and then, like Starmer, back down at the first sign of rebellion. Margaret Thatcher led the way in this regard: in the end, you earn a certain respect for standing your ground and apply harsh measuresespecially if (rightly or wrongly) in the end it turns out that they have worked.”
Burnham’s allies believe the former Manchester mayor has a greater determination and he will have a firmer position than that of the still prime minister in areas such as the economy, defense or foreign policy, especially with regard to his dealings with the president of the United States, Donald Trump. But during the campaign to win his seat in Parliament, the candidate for prime minister qualified some of his statements previous actions, including his defense of re-entry into the European Union or his criticism of harsh immigration policies, something that has led many to wonder what the line of his eventual Government. The answer, or at least part of it, they hope to obtain in the speeches he plans to give this week as a prior step to the official presentation of his candidacy on July 9.
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