The real estate credit contracts revised in July will have higher installments, at a time when several institutions are already pointing to inflation close to 3% this year.
House payments will rise in July for credits with a three-, six- and 12-month Euribor rate that are reviewed that month, according to simulations from the Deco Protests for the Lusa agency.
The simulations are based on a scenario with financing of 150,000 euros for 30 years and a ‘spread’ (bank’s commercial margin) of 1%.
Based on these conditions, contracts with Euribor 12 months revised in July start paying the bank R$698.77, R$59.79 more compared to the last review, in July 2025.
Contracts with Six-month Euribor increase by R$37.76, compared to January, to R$681.63.
In three months, the contracts will pay R$18.90 more, compared to April, with the installment reaching R$660.16.
In June, the Euribor monthly average it was 2.339% at three months, 2.596% at six months and 2.798% at 12 months.
The average Selic rate considered for the purposes of reviewing a variable rate loan is that of the month prior to the signing of the credit agreement.
Data Bank of Portugal for April, the latest available, indicate that the six-month Euribor represented 39.56% of the ‘stock’ of loans for permanent home ownership with variable rates.
The same data indicates that the 12- and three-month Euribor represented 31.53% and 24.55%, respectively.
Inflation revised upwards
Prices will rise more than anticipated this year, with the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, leading institutions that monitor the Brazilian economy to revise inflation forecasts to around 3%.
According to the quick estimate released this Tuesday by National Statistics Institute (INE), the inflation rate was 3.2% in June, in the annual comparison, a slowdown compared to the 3.3% recorded in the previous month.
The underlying inflation indicator (total index excluding unprocessed food and energy products) recorded, in June, a year-on-year rate of change of 2.5%, 0.3 percentage points above that seen in May.
Fuel prices have seen a sharp increase in recent months, in a context of strong geopolitical tension in the Middle East, with oil prices pressured by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the volatility of international markets.
For the year as a whole, estimates from national and international institutions for Portugal were trending magazinesstarting with the Government, which in the annual progress report delivered to Brussels at the end of April pointed to inflation of 2.5%, above the 2.1% previously forecast.
Even so, the executive is the most optimistic regarding price developments this year. THE Public Finance Council projects inflation of 2.9%, according to April estimates, while European Commission pointed, in May, to a variation in the harmonized price index of 3%.
General inflation, measured by the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (), which allows comparisons between countries, is expected to “peak in the second quarter of 2026 and gradually decline thereafter, as the sharp increase in energy prices is expected to have only a moderate and lagged effect on energy-intensive goods and services”, considers the European Commission.
The Bank of Portugal, in , anticipated that inflation will reach 3.1% this year, and will return to values close to 2% in the following years.
“The rise in inflation in 2026 largely reflects the increase in oil prices associated with the war in Iran, which affected a significant portion of the world’s supply of energy raw materials,” says the document.
In turn, the OECDin the Economic Outlook released in June, signaled that higher energy prices will impact the Portuguese economy and that inflation is expected to reach a peak of 3.2% in 2026.
O International Monetary Fund is even the most pessimistic, projecting that inflation will increase to 3.4% in 2026, driven by rising raw material prices and, to a lesser extent, wage pressures, before falling back in 2027 to 2.3%.
The rise in prices has generally occurred in Europe. In this context, the European Central Bank decided, on June 11, to raise the three key rates by 25 basis points, in the first increase since September 2023. The rate on deposits rose to 2.25%, that on main refinancing operations to 2.40% and that on the permanent liquidity lending facility to 2.65%.
The Governing Council explained, at the time, that “the war in the Middle East is generating inflationary pressures and the decision to increase interest rates appears robust given a set of scenarios, which map how the shock could evolve and affect the medium-term prospects for the euro area”.
