After appearing numerically tied in the second round in May, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) once again opened up an advantage over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). This is what the new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey, released this Wednesday (2), shows.
In the first round, the PT member maintained his lead, while his main opponent lost part of the voting intentions registered in May.
In the main scenario tested by the institute, Lula appears with 46.3% of voting intentions, compared to 36.6% for Flávio Bolsonaro. In relation to the previous survey, the president fluctuated from 47.2% to 46.3%, within the margin of error of one percentage point. The senator fell from 40% to 36.6%, a movement that interrupts the recovery trajectory observed at the beginning of the year.
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Next comes Renan Santos (Missão), with 7.8%; Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil), with 2.9%; Romeu Zema (Novo), with 2%; and Joaquim Barbosa (DC), who debuts in the survey with 1%. Aécio Neves (PSDB), Samara Martins (UP), Augusto Cury (Avante), Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO), Edmilson Costa (PCB) and Hertz Dias (PSTU) registered less than 1%. Whites and nulls total 1.1%, while 0.1% of those interviewed said they did not know who to vote for.
Draw gives way to Lula’s advantage
The main change in the research appears in the simulation of the second round between Lula and Flávio. In May, both registered 48% of voting intentions. Now, Lula reaches 48.8%, while Flávio drops to 42.3%. Whites, null and undecided represent 8.9%.
The change comes after a period of strong wear and tear for the senator’s pre-campaign. In recent weeks, Flávio began to face two simultaneous crises.
The first arose after the disclosure of requests for resources to banker Daniel Vorcaro, controller of Banco Master, to finance the film Dark Horse, a biopic of Jair Bolsonaro. The episode opened a political crisis within the PL and fueled questions from the opposition.
Subsequently, the relationship between Flávio and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro also gained public repercussions. during discussions about the formation of the party’s state platforms, especially in Ceará. The senator publicly apologized and began to intensify agendas aimed at female voters, considered strategic by the campaign.
AtlasIntel listened to voters about the repercussions of this episode, but the results of this block of research will only be released this Thursday (3).
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Lula maintains performance despite government crisis
While the opposition faced erosion, Lula went through practically the same period without a significant loss of support.
In recent weeks, the Federal Police launched Operation Compliance Zero, which targeted the then government leader in the Senate, Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), who was being investigated for alleged advantages related to Banco Master. The senator denies any irregularity and states that the resources cited in the investigation have a legal origin.
Despite the political repercussion of the case, the research shows that the president maintained his electoral level.
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Other scenarios
AtlasIntel also simulated second-round disputes with other opposition names. Against Ronaldo Caiado, Lula would win by 48% to 39%.
In a dispute against Romeu Zema, the president appears with 48.2%, while the governor of Minas Gerais registers 38.5%.
In the scenario against Renan Santos, Lula reaches 49.2%, compared to 28.9% for his opponent.
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In a possible dispute against Michelle Bolsonaro, the president scores 48.7%, against 38.9% for the former first lady.
The numbers reinforce that, at this moment, Lula leads all second round scenarios tested by the institute, while Flávio remains the most competitive opposition candidate, although he has lost ground in relation to the previous survey.
The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey interviewed 4,999 voters between June 26th and 30th. The margin of error is one percentage point, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-04582/2026.
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