The New York Stock Exchange’s main indices ended the second quarter of 2026 with historic results, consolidating one of the strongest periods for American financial markets since the economic recovery seen after the Covid-19 pandemic.
The S&P 500, an index that brings together 500 of the largest companies listed in the United States and is considered the main reference for the American stock market, advanced 14.9% between April and June alone. This is the best quarterly performance since 2020, when markets were recovering from heavy losses caused by the pandemic.
In 2026, the index has already registered an appreciation of 9.55%, a result that surprises analysts, especially because the period was marked by events capable of generating strong financial instability, including the increase in tensions in the Middle East, volatility in oil prices and uncertainties about American monetary policy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, made up of 30 large American companies, accumulated an increase of 8.85% in the first six months of the year, recording its best first half since 2021.
The Nasdaq, an index with a strong presence of technology companies, rose approximately 12.8% in the same period, reinforcing investor confidence in the technology sector.
AI continues to lead
The main explanation for the appreciation of stock markets continues to be the global race for artificial intelligence.
Since the launch and popularization of generative AI tools, companies, governments and investors have started to direct billions of dollars to the technological infrastructure necessary to support this new phase of the digital economy.
In this scenario, manufacturers of semiconductors, advanced chips, high-performance memory and equipment for data processing centers have become some of the most valued companies on the market.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), an index that tracks the main companies in the semiconductor sector in the United States, recorded the best quarter in its history. According to the data released, the sector accumulated a return of close to 92% in the last three months.
Among the highlights are companies such as Intel, Micron Technology and Sandisk, benefiting from the increase in demand for components used in servers, data centers and artificial intelligence systems.
Analysts explain that practically every modern application of AI depends on enormous computational capacity. To train advanced models and operate large-scale artificial intelligence systems, thousands of specialized chips are needed working simultaneously.
This unprecedented demand has transformed the semiconductor sector into one of the main drivers of the American financial market.
Small businesses
The appreciation was not restricted to technology giants. The Russell 2000, an index that tracks around two thousand companies with smaller market capitalization in the United States, accumulates an increase of more than 20% in 2026.
This performance represents the best first half for the index since 1991.
However, experts note that the increase is not evenly distributed. Among the 50 best-performing stocks in the Russell 2000 this year, at least 16 belong to the semiconductor sector or have a strong connection with the artificial intelligence production chain.
This demonstrates that much of investor optimism continues to be focused on the advancement of AI and companies capable of providing the necessary infrastructure for this technological transformation.
Tensions in the Middle East
Another factor that caught investors’ attention was the market’s resistance to episodes of tension involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
Historically, conflicts in the Middle East often generate volatility in global markets due to the potential impact on oil production and transportation.
During the quarter, investors closely monitored concerns related to the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime route through which approximately one-fifth of the oil consumed in the world passes.
Any threat to traffic in the region could cause an increase in energy prices and put pressure on global inflation.
Despite this, the markets reacted by betting on a gradual reduction in tensions and the maintenance of trade flow throughout the region, helping to sustain the advance of the stock markets.
Worst quarter in more than a decade
While stocks celebrated historic results, gold experienced a completely different scenario.
After reaching record levels at the beginning of the year, the precious metal recorded its worst quarter since 2013.
Traditionally, investors turn to gold in times of economic uncertainty, international conflicts or fears of recession.
However, the appreciation of the US dollar and expectations of continued high interest rates in the United States reduced the attractiveness of the metal.
When interest rates rise, investments in government bonds and other fixed income assets tend to offer more competitive returns, reducing the demand for assets that do not generate income, such as gold.
Fed can change the scenario
Despite the strong performance recorded so far, analysts warn that the second half of 2026 could present important challenges for the markets.
The main one continues to be the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the American central bank.
If inflation accelerates again, the monetary authority could keep interest rates high for longer or even promote new increases.
Higher interest rates tend to make credit more expensive, reduce corporate investment and reduce investors’ appetite for riskier assets, such as shares.
Warning signs
Even though it is the main driver of the rise in stock markets, the artificial intelligence sector is beginning to show some signs of slowing down.
Investors closely monitor growth indicators for large technology companies and chip manufacturers to assess whether the current pace can be maintained.
Part of the market is already debating whether the valuations observed in recent years reflect excessively optimistic expectations about the sector’s future profits.
The discussion gained momentum after reports that some companies linked to the world of artificial intelligence were reevaluating expansion and IPO schedules, while chip manufacturers face increasingly difficult comparisons after extraordinary results recorded in recent years.
Still, the predominant assessment among analysts is that artificial intelligence will continue to be one of the central themes of global financial markets in the coming years.
For now, Wall Street ends the first half of 2026 with robust numbers, driven by a combination of technological innovation, investor confidence and expectations that the artificial intelligence revolution will continue to transform the world economy.
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