A bloc of the left and the extreme right came together to bring down what will be the shortest French government in the history of the Fifth Republic. Emmanuel Macron has no major alternatives: next year, everything indicates that there will be new elections in France
Michel Barnier took office not even three months ago and is already at risk of seeing his government collapse. , taking into account the polarization of parliament, resulting from this summer’s legislative elections. What was not anticipated was that the markets, faced with the growing French deficit, . Still, analysts understand that it is unlikely that it will fail to comply with the budgetary limits required by the European Union.
The prime minister wanted to tighten the reins on the budget for next year, aiming to reduce public debt, but was faced with resistance from the opposition in parliament. Therefore, he decided to appeal against the Constitution – a clause that has been activated 113 times since 1958, including 23 times by former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne – which allows the vote in the National Assembly to be circumvented and force the approval of the budget – a decision that exposes the Government to a motion of censure.
In fact, to two motions of censure, since, after the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, threatened that it would do so if Barnier resorted to that same article, Marine Le Pen’s extreme right announced this Monday that it would also will present a motion of censure to the executive, describing the budget in question as “profoundly unfair to the French”.
“The French people are fed up. He’s tired of being mistreated. You’re tired of being disrespected. Some perhaps thought that with Michel Barnier things would improve, but they got even worse”, criticized Marine Le Pen, from the National Union, who said that she will vote in favor of the motion presented by the left-wing coalition.
Both the New Popular Front and the National Union have 24 hours to present a motion of censure from the moment the prime minister activates the respective article. Once approved, “the prime minister must submit to the president of the republic the resignation of the government”, can be read in the French Constitution.
If confirmed, this would be an “unprecedented situation in the 21st century”, describes Jorge Botelho Moniz, director of European Studies at Universidade Lusófona, remembering that it is the first time in 62 years that a French government has fallen due to a motion of censure since the fall of Georges Pompidou’s government in the 1960s. Barnier’s government would thus become the shortest in the history of the Fifth Republic.
Michel Barnier resorted to a clause in the French Constitution to bypass the vote in Parliament. Now, he faces two motions of censure and runs the risk of seeing his government collapse, less than three months after taking office
(EPA/Mohammed Badra via LUSA)
Michel Barnier also tried to give in to some of the red lines established by the extreme right to approve the budget, which in recent days has been putting pressure on the Government with ultimatums, demanding, among others, that it not proceed with tax increases on electricity, pension updates and cuts to health care access for undocumented immigrants. The prime minister began by giving in, backtracking on his plans to increase taxes on electricity and also tried to appeal to the far right with other promises, such as limiting access to healthcare for undocumented individuals.
Barnier guarantees that these approaches to the extreme right were not aimed at convincing Le Pen, but rather trying to reach a consensus with all opposition parties. “But everyone knew that the government was in the hands of Marine Le Pen”, argues professor Victor Pereira, researcher at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa and doctor in Contemporary History from the Paris Institute of Political Studies. For the professor, the government has until now been in a “game with Marine Le Pen’s National Union”, believing that the far-right party would, at the very least, abstain from voting on the budget if the executive made “some concessions”.
But neither Marine Le Pen nor Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the French left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, are interested in consensus, according to ambassador Francisco Seixas da Costa, who believes that the opposition leaders’ objective is to make with Emmanuel Macron presenting his resignation. “They want Macron to resign and for early elections to be held, each of them convinced that they will win them”, he assumes.
But the ambassador is convinced that this will not happen: “I don’t believe Macron will resign.” Professor Victor Pereira states that, despite the “quite complex” political situation, Macron will not resign, especially because this would be the recognition of “a failure” in his political management, after, last year, he called early elections following the results of his party, the Renaissance, in the European elections, which resulted in a completely fragmented parliament.
A government with “hands tied” and a “stubborn” president
In fact, Macron doesn’t have much of a chance now. Parliament cannot be dissolved until July next year, as the French Constitution establishes a 12-month deadline until new elections. In other words, if the fall of this government is confirmed, Macron could be “stubborn” – as professor Victor Pereira describes – and rename Michel Barnier as Prime Minister – “which is not impossible with him”, jokes the researcher – or he will have to find another minimally consensual figure to be at the head of the Government. Now, considering that it took the French president two months to nominate Michel Barnier, this task may prove difficult to accomplish.
In any case, Ambassador Francisco Seixas da Costa anticipates “months of indecision” within French politics. “Macron will live with a transitional government until he calls elections again”, he believes. Even so, he assumes, “the elections are not supposed to bring about a major change in relation to the current situation”. Until then, the interim government’s hands are tied to implement a budget in twelfths, working roughly with the previous year’s budget, without changes to taxes and other revenues and expenses.
This political crisis, which experts describe as “dramatic”, also has an impact at an international level. With the White House changing its outfit again and the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine with no end in sight, France is exposed as a country “without power” and with a “lack of political solidity at the European level”, problematizes ambassador Francisco Seixas da Costa. In addition to this, the political crisis in Germany does not help European stability. “The two essential axes of European politics, France and Germany, are currently in crisis and this has an impact on Europe”, says the ambassador, foreseeing challenges for the transatlantic relationship.
