France will have to convince Italy to block an agreement between Mercosur and the European Union

by Andrea
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Clearly opposed, France will have to get more countries in the bloc to follow it if it wants to prevent the treaty from coming into force.

Currently, in addition to the noise coming from the Élysée Palace, fueled mainly by local farmers, Austria and Poland and, more timidly, the Netherlands have also expressed opposition to the pact.

The group is not enough to stop the process. Despite some demonstrations against the agreement so far, it is still unclear which side Italy will follow.

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After the conclusion with the negotiating teams, carried out in Brasília (DF), and the signing of a consensus by the European Commission and Mercosur executives, in Uruguay, the next stage is the legal review and translation of the document into the official language of all countries involved.

After that, it must go through the Council and the European Parliament and, even before it comes into force, obtain ratification from the European national parliaments and Mercosur countries.

To be approved by the Council, there is a requirement for the consent of at least 55% of the countries and representation of 65% of the bloc’s total population. To prevent the agreement, four opposing countries are needed, which would already be the case today, but with a total of at least 35% of the population. Hence Italy’s fundamental role in the outcome.

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Because of internal political issues in France, there are doubts about whether President Emmanuel Macron will have the strength or even time to work on this issue. For now, the country’s focus is on internal issues, particularly after Prime Minister Michel Barnier was ousted after just three months in office.

Mercosur diplomats point out that, on the other side, there is a strong interest in moving the agreement forward, led by the bloc’s largest economy, Germany. Spain has also been campaigning for progress. After Donald Trump’s victory in the United States, the two big players gained support, albeit in a less inflammatory way.

Furthermore, a strong lobby must be expected from the local productive sector, especially the industry, eager for the giant consumer market that the Southern bloc represents. Even though European farmers are unhappy, it makes more economic sense for the countries’ leaders support industry, focusing on the trade balance.

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The agreement comes at a time when the continent’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is slipping and the expansion of exports can be seen as a lever for economic growth.

If it passes through the European Council, the treaty goes to the European Parliament, made up of 720 deputies. In this case, voting requires a simple majority of 50% + 1 among those present. Once these obstacles are overcome, the agreement comes into force immediately.

(With international agencies)

France will have to convince Italy to block an agreement between Mercosur and the European Union

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