It was sought by politicians from other parties, with or without mandate, interested in hitchhiking in the popularity of the Federal Deputy (PL-MG), whose videos reached.
In the projections of PL and politicians from other subtitles, the Nikolas effect will cause the party to have 30% of Minas vacancies in the next election. It is estimated that the parliamentarian exceeds 2 million votes and helps to elect from 17 to 18 of the 53 federal deputies of the state.
If this is realized, the PL mining bench by itself would be larger than the current size of parties such as PDT (17 deputies), PSB (15), PSOL and PSDB (13).
In the past election, Nikolas received 1.47 million votes and pulled six other candidates with very low vote. Marcelo Álvaro Antônio won with only 31 thousand votes, the 83rd in the ranking of Minas. The acronym just did not make 13 deputies this time because none of the other PL candidates surpassed the floor of 21 thousand votes to fill the two extra vacancies.
With strong performance on social networks, their allies use this as one of the criteria for increasing the relevance of the deputy. In 2022, he had just over one million followers and was the most voted in 544 of the 853 municipalities. Today he has 17.5 million followers and has gained national visibility with critical videos to the Lula government (PT).
In addition to the possibility of an even more significant vote for 28 -year -old Nikolas, the increase in the bench would occur with the affiliation of deputies with mandate – by less three others have already probed the acronym to join in March, when the window opens to party – and the arrival of politicians with medium voting.
The account of those interested in migrating to the PL is as follows: candidates with about 40,000 or 50,000 votes are coveted for helping in the party’s total votes, but they are unlikely to have the chances of election and only help the plate heads to obtain the number of votes required.
In return, they have projection to other elections, such as mayor, and the prospect of support to assume other positions, such as a secretariat or state.
The projection is that each vacancy of federal deputy in Minas Gerais will require 190 thousand votes. For two vacancies, therefore, it would take the support of 380,000 voters for the plate. Already a puller like Nikolas gets enough votes for himself and to carry others with less vote.
“Most candidates in this range over 30,000 votes want to go to the PL,” says former deputy Fabio Ramalho (MDB), who negotiates with the party. The emedebista had 77,000 votes in the 2022 election, the most voted among those who were not elected, but was left out because the MDB only had enough votes to make two chairs. Former deputy Aelton Freitas, for example, has already left the PP and returned to PL.
Another who would have made contact is former deputy and former mayor Eduardo Cunha (RJ), who studies running in Minas Gerais. According to local leaders, the party would have responded that it does not agree with affiliation, understanding that this can be used to attack the entire plate.
Cunha said to Sheet that “talks to everyone” but has not sought the PL and has not yet decided which state will be a candidate for federal deputy. “I will take this decision for last moment.”
The president of the PL of Minas Gerais, Deputy Domingos Sávio, denies conversations with Cunha, but says the party decided in April that he will make a filter in affiliations. “The unenforceable criterion is that we will only accept people who commune with our principles and values. If it is only electoral strategy, we thank you, but we have no interest.”
The movement of affiliations can intensify when Nikolas decides whether to compete for reelection.
On the other hand, it can empty if the option is for a candidacy for the government of Minas Gerais, a scenario in which a composition with Senator Cleitinho (Republicans), who has already launched a candidate and is his ally.
Another factor that could encourage Nikolas to launch the Bolsonaro’s insistence to launch themselves to the presidency. Inelegable, he has said he will try to register the candidacy and, among allies, there are still those who are still able to reverse the scenario there.
In this way Nikolas is seen as someone who would give a stronger stage for a key to the national election. In 2022, Bolsonaro lost to Lula in Minas Gerais.
Another possibility that was raised would be that of Nikolas changing its electoral domicile and competing for São Paulo ,.
The exchange would take advantage of the vacuum left by the exit of the three largest vote in the state.
In addition to designing nationally, could maintain and expand the PL bench in Sao Paulo, which should lose its three voting handles: Eduardo Bolsonaro will compete for, Carla Zambelli is ineligible and Ricardo Salles joined the New Party.
The change would also help to elect PL’s national president, Valdemar Costa Neto, who intends to run for federal deputy for Sao Paulo in the next election. He has worked for 20 years, when he resigned because of the complaints of the monthly scandal.
Itatiaia Nikolas radio has denied this possibility and talked about it with the party. “I thank the affection of the São Paulo people with me, but I come to reaffirm clearly: my heart, my mission and my commitment remain firm with Minas Gerais,” he said.
To face the potential effect of Nikolas at the ballot box, political opponents have already begun to mobilize at the base with a pragmatic argument: what did he bring back to the municipality?
The questioning must be intensified until the election. Parliamentarians evaluate that, despite the long -reach performance in the networks, it is not possible to have prioritized so many municipalities and in a balanced way. The idea is to explore these bottlenecks.
A leftist party deputy hopes to use local policy as a counterpoint. If in 2022, Nikolas was unknown and was a bet of the population, now he wants voters to cover what was brought positively to the municipality of Return.
