Ten years after the British MPs’ vote for the referendum that led to its departure, a poll notes that majority in the four largest EU member states would support the reintegration of the United Kingdom, but not on the same terms.
Yougov’s survey in six Western European countries, including the United Kingdom, also confirms that the majority of British voters now support the country’s return to the Union, but only if it can maintain the special privileges and exceptions it previously enjoyed.
The result, according to the polls, is a “deadlock in public opinion”, even if the labor government, which has negotiated a “reposition” with the Union to seek the return to the EU this year, is extremely unlikely.
The investigation
Yougov’s Eurotrack survey showed that at least half of the respondents in the four largest EU countries – France, Germany, Italy and Spain – support the return of the United Kingdom, with rates ranging from 51% to Italy to 53% in France, 60% in Spain and 63% in Germany.
The research found that voters in favor of staying and those who supported more pro -European parties would widely support reintegration, even if it meant the adoption of the euro and integration into the Schengen zone, though with much lower rates.
Nearly 60% of voters in favor of staying stated that it would support the return to the EU without the previous exceptions, a rate reduced by about 25 percentage points compared to the question without specific terms; as well as 58% of Labor voters (-23 points) and 49% of the Liberals (-31).
When asked if Britain should be allowed to return on the terms it had when it left – that is, without adopting the euro and outside the Schengen zone – the percentages changed significantly.
Only one fifth of respondents to the four largest EU members, from 19% in Italy and France to 21% in Spain and 22% in Germany, believed that the United Kingdom should be allowed to return under these terms, while 58% -62% said it should be a full member of all.
Yougov asked if Britain should only be allowed to return on the condition that it would keep its previous exceptions. Some (33%-36%) considered it acceptable, but more (41%-52%) were opposed.
In the United Kingdom, while 54% of Britons supported the return to the EU when the question was unconditionally raised, the rate fell to 36% when the return meant the abandonment of previous exceptions. Under these terms, 45% of Britons were opposed.
The percentage of Eurosceptic voters who were willing to reintegrate without the previous special treatment was almost reduced by half: from 21% to 10% among voters in favor of withdrawal; from 25% to 12% between Conservatives;
The fifth continental country involved in the research, Denmark, was an exception. The respondents there were particularly positive (72%) on the return of the United Kingdom and the most enthusiastic of the largest member states to preserve his previous exceptions (43%).
Denmark, however, is one of the only three EU countries with exceptions in key union policy. The survey also found that vast majority in all five continents (63%-75%) would support the integration of an independent Scotland in the EU.
The poll, in representative samples of more than 2,000 adults in the United Kingdom and Germany and more than 1,000 in Denmark, France, Italy and Spain, took place between 12 and 27 June.
