The Brazilian government believes that there will be a escalation in the rates and sanctions of against Brazil if there is a conviction of the former president (PL) in the (Federal Supreme Court), a decision considered the most likely.
The Supreme Court is expected to begin the trial of the coup plot in September. 50% rates over approximately half of Brazilian exports to the US went into effect on Wednesday (6). In addition, sanctions arising from.
Planalto also considers possible that the US President, imposes on additional rates on Brazil in retaliation for the importation of Russian products (secondary sanctions), the example of what was done with India, which was taxed.
In this case, however, members of the government say there is still space – there is a 20 -day postponement of rates to India and Trump will meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, which may once again change American politics from Kremlin because of Ukraine war.
Anyway, according to an interlocutor of the Brazilian government, a call from President Luiz Inácio da Silva to Trump is out of question. In the government’s interpretation, the connection would be a trap, because Trump would demand forgiveness to Bolsonaro and Lula could not accept.
In this way, the call could come out of the Culatra –Trump would have an excuse to increase, even more, the tariffs about Brazil.
In addition, the government considers that Brazil obtained a victory in the political field by resisting Trump, with influential figures such as economists Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz and political scientist Steve Levitsky highlighting the dignity of Brazilian reaction to Trump’s blackmail.
In the vision of the Brazilian government, trying to please Trump would not solve the situation either-the behavior of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had a friendly meeting in the White House, a good relationship with the American, and yet his country was the target of heavy tariffs.
The assessment is that a retreat of the Trump government, with. This would only occur in two circumstances. One possibility would be the US president to say he received a call from Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) and, thanks to him, would remove tariffs-would help trumps and pockets.
Another possibility would be a general reduction of tariffs on certain products that the US does not produce, as has happened. In this case, the reduction of the fare would be for all countries that export certain products, not just Brazil.
The Brazilian government admits that there has not been much advances in negotiations with the US government, from contacts by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, Vice-President and Industry Minister Geraldo Alckmin and Chancellor Mauro Vieira with his American counterparts.
In Planalto’s view, the negotiation is frozen because of the non -opening of the US government to discuss non -Bolsonaro topics.
Planalto rules out the possibility of a coordinated reaction from Trump’s tariffs – some block countries oppose a confrontation with Trump.
