The “Great Pandemic” could be even worse than COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered life as we know it and taken the lives of millions of people. Still, the next pandemic could be even worse.

This is, at least, the conviction of specialist scientists Michael Osterholmreflected in his new book The Big One: How We Must Prepare for Future Deadly Pandemics.

With help from award-winning author Mark Olshaker, Osterholm describes a theoretical but plausible scenario in which a new and more lethal coronavirus emerges and spreads rapidly around the world.

A cites an excerpt from the book, warning that a new pandemic would be extremely damaging to the global economy, since all economies are interconnected.

Exemplifying and calling into question the motto “America First”, the book reminds us that in the USA, most essential generic medicines and, in many cases, life-saving, comes from China and India — both preferential targets for viral spread, which would result in the closure of factories.

The authors remind us that no one is completely safe until everyone is safe; and mention the Nobel Prize for Medicine, Joshua Lederberg: “Bacteria and viruses know nothing about national sovereignty… No matter how selfish our motives are, we can no longer be indifferent to the suffering of others. The microbe that yesterday knocked over a child on a distant continent could today reach yours and sow a global pandemic tomorrow.”

Unlike many fields today, ethics remains a vital and integral component of medicine and public health, and there is therefore a compelling reason to view the rest of the world with the same compassion and empathy we feel for our own people.

However, on a practical level, the authors consider that there is nothing particularly altruistic about sharing vaccines with low- and middle-income countries in sufficient quantities to protect their populations. It’s simply self-interest.

Osterholm writes that “as we prepare for the Great Pandemic, We cannot allow the same thing to happen that happened with Covidin which high-income nations ended up with an abundance of vaccines — often more than they could use — while low- and middle-income countries were left with very few.”

“Not only must we develop new and effective vaccines; we must also, through international agreements and cooperation, plan a means of increase production to satisfy global needtogether with an efficient transport and distribution system, even if it is necessary to maintain a cold chain. We will need an international public financing approach that covers the excess production capacity required during a pandemic”, he recommends.

The authors of the book warn that, if we do not change the paradigm and our way of being in the world, the “Great Pandemic” could be even worse than COVID-19.