Right-wing parties await the definition of () who will be his successor in the race for the Presidency in 2026 to define tickets in states considered strategic for the national election.
Bolsonarism has competitive candidates, whether from the PL or from allied parties, in at least 13 states — mostly in the center-south of the country.
The House has the prerogative to approve the impeachment of ministers of the (Supreme Federal Court) and was chosen as a priority by Bolsonaro, who dreams of concentrating the majority of parliamentarians for, as he has already stated.
Allies of Bolsonaroism point out that alliances can be made or broken depending on who the candidate for the Planalto is — and whether it is a name that is also close to some center parties, such as the governor (Republicans), or a member of the Bolsonaro family.
The lack of definition occurs especially in the government — which is part of the government (PT), but also that of Tarcísio in . The governor has maintained an ambiguous stance, but has slowed down the presidential offensive in recent weeks and has reinforced his candidacy for re-election.
The former president’s order is that one of the vacancies in each state be his nomination, and the other, that of an allied party.
Despite the priority given by Bolsonaro, his political field to control the majority of the 81 seats in the Senate.
In 2022, 27 seats were contested in the House, and the former president’s allies won 56% of them. In 2026, the Senate will renew the remaining 54 vacancies. If Bolsonarism repeats its success rate, it will be able to occupy the majority of seats, 45, but will not reach the 54 needed to obtain the approval of an impeachment of a minister of the STF (Supreme Federal Court).
In São Paulo, Minas Gerais, the Federal District and Paraná, the definition of the Senate ticket for next year depends largely on the arrangement for the presidential contest.
In Rio de Janeiro, if Tarcísio is a candidate for Planalto, the mayor and likely candidate for government (PSD) may remain neutral in relation to the House, which would benefit the PL, which may have two candidates in the state.
Paes is an ally of Lula, but the president of the PSD, Gilberto Kassab, has already said that he will be with Tarcísio if the governor runs for president.
In Rio, in addition to Flávio Bolsonaro, the PL could introduce governor Cláudio Castro, senator Carlos Portinho or even the leader of the party in the Chamber, Sóstenes Cavalcante, to the Senate.
The PSD today has its own pre-candidate for the federal government: ., head of the Executive in Paraná. He will maintain his candidacy if the governor of São Paulo decides not to run. Otherwise, he could go to the Senate. In the state, Bolsonarism has two more candidates: deputy Filipe Barros (PL-PR) and Cristina Graeml (Podemos).
In São Paulo, the largest electoral college in the country, the uncertainty worries allies of the governor and the former president. A scenario emerges with Tarcísio running for re-election, the Secretary of Public Security, (PP), for one seat in the Senate and the (PL-SP) running for the other — but his presence in the USA and the investigations that affect him could make it unfeasible.
In another scenario, the mayor of the capital of São Paulo, (), would leave his position to run for government or vice-governor Felício Ramuth (PSD) would be elevated to the position.
There is also the possibility that the vice-mayor of São Paulo, Mello Araújo (PL), considered an obstacle to Nunes’ eventual departure, could be a candidate for the Senate in place of Eduardo, who is not expected to return to Brazil.
In Minas Gerais, the state of also presidential candidate Romeu Zema (Novo), the Republicans are expected to nominate Senator Cleitinho for governor, while the head of the state Executive seeks to nominate his vice-president, Matheus Simões.
To do this, Simões can join the PSD, which is currently home to the senator (MG), Lula’s possible name for governor in the state.
Santa Catarina, Distrito Federal and Rondônia are states in which the PL must have two names competing for the position.
In the first case, you must take one of the vacancies. The second is disputed by deputy Carol de Toni (PL-SC) and senator Esperidião Amin (PP-SC), who is seeking re-election.
The two were recently with Bolsonaro, imprisoned at home since August 4th. The former president told the deputy that she had a good name and gave her approval to try to become viable. Amin already told the Sheetafter the meeting, which is early and there is still a lot to happen.
The governor of Santa Catarina, Jorginho Mello (PL), is trying a broad range of alliances, but could lose Amin and the PP — who would join a candidacy by the mayor of Chapecó, João Rodrigues (PSD) — if his party puts forward two names for the Senate.
In the Federal District, the PL presents two electorally viable candidacies, but the movement could put the party on a collision course with allies. The former first lady is seen as guaranteed one of the vacancies — if she does not run on a possible presidential ticket, even as vice-president.
The other is postulated by the governor of the Federal District, Ibaneis Rocha (MDB), who seeks to sign an agreement with PL and PP. The idea is that vice Celina Leão (PP), Michelle’s friend, will be his successor and the ticket will include the former first lady and him.
But deputy Bia Kicis (PL-DF) also put herself forward for the position, .
In Rondônia, the PL should also have two candidates: senator Marcos Rogério, who will try to be re-elected, and businessman and friend of the clan Bruno Scheid.
Options for the Senate that are competitive with Bolsonarism*
NORTE (3)
Acre: senator Márcio Bittar (PL-AC)
Rondônia: federal deputy Fernando Máximo (União Brasil-RO)
Pará: federal deputy Éder Mauro (PL-PA)
NORTHEAST (1)
Rio Grande do Norte: senator Styvenson Valentin (Podemos-RN)
CENTRAL-WEST (4)
Federal District: former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL-DF)
Goiás: federal deputy Gustavo Gayer (PL-GO)
Mato Grosso do Sul: governor Reinaldo Azambuja (PL)
Tocantins: senator Eduardo Gomes (PL-TO)
SOUTHEAST (3)
Minas Gerais: senator Carlos Viana (Podemos-MG)
São Paulo: Secretary of Public Security Guilherme Derrite (PP)
Rio de Janeiro: senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ)
ON (2)
Paraná: Cristina Graeml (Podemos)
Santa Catarina: Carlos Bolsonaro (PL-RJ)
*Including names from the PL, allied parties or notorious Bolsonaro supporters who are already well positioned in local polls for at least one of the Senate seats
