Scientists are preparing for the next Carrington Event

The European space agency ESA’s Sentinel-1D project is carrying out simulations to improve our ability to respond to a catastrophic solar storm. But if such an event occurs, “there are no good solutions.”

Governments’ preparedness for major catastrophes is not limited to crises that originate here on Earth; Experts know that some of the most disturbing and unpredictable occurrences begin on the surface of the sun.

A few weeks ago, those responsible for emergency planning at the European Space Agency (ESA), in Darmstadt, Germany, began carrying out simulations to improve response capabilities to a catastrophic solar storm — like what happened in the famous event of 1859.

And while today’s digitally interconnected world means that such an event would inevitably disrupt global systemsresearchers are working to ensure that humanity has as much notice as possible to avoid the worst case scenario.

Solar storms are semi-regular events in which the sun expels gigantic plumes of energized dust and gas towards the planet, at speeds that can reach 3.2 million kilometers per hour, explains .

These waves can disturb Earth’s magnetosphere and generate the majestic tones observed during auroras.

The consequences go far beyond a dazzling spectacle in the sky. Geomagnetic storms can easily disrupt satellite networks such as Starlink, electrical networks, communications systems and any other electronic infrastructure or related to geospatial systems.

Other Carrington Event

Although a severe solar storm made headlines last year, the 166-year-old event remains the most powerful bombardment ever recorded.

In August 1859, what is now known as the Evento Carrington hit the Earth with enough cosmic force to produce Northern Lights as far as Central America, also destroying the primitive telegraph systems.

Although no living being was directly affected, the event caused a series of global problems and failures — at a time when the world was not as dependent as it is today on electronic systems.

The Carrington Event was quite severe almost two centuries ago, but a solar storm this powerful today could paralyze a society dependent on electronics, global positioning systems and telecommunications.

One of the biggest questions would be how the tens of thousands of satellites above our heads might react. Currently, ESA is preparing the launch of the Sentinel-1Don November 4, the first of two orbital payloads intended to provide a steady stream of images of the Earth’s surface.

Second Thomas Ormstondeputy manager of space operations at , there is currently only a limited scope for action by experts to protect this type of multimillion-dollar project.

“If such an event occurs, there are no good solutions. The aim would be to keep the satellite safe and limit damage as much as possible,” Ormston said in an ESA statement.

Those responsible for planning the training scenario spared no expense during the simulation. The exercise focused on a X45 class simulated eruption — a situation at the level of the Carrington Event, which would present X-ray and ultraviolet radiation capable of disrupting radars, communications and GPS data about eight minutes after its launch from the sun.

Three waves of energy

Unfortunately, such an emergency would not include just a single burst of cosmic energy. About 10 to 20 minutes later, a second wave of particles high-energy energy, including protons, electrons and alpha particles, would hit Earth at close to the speed of light, frying Sentinel-1D’s onboard electronics and causing possibly permanent damage.

Gustavo Baldo Carvalhothe Brazilian engineer responsible for the simulation, explained that although the first explosion would probably catch observers by surprise, they they would know what awaited them.

“Once they recovered from the initial shock, they would know that a countdown had begun. In the following 10 to 18 hoursa coronal mass ejection was going to hit us, and they had to prepare for it,” he said.

But the The third impact would be the most costly. This is the moment when a coronal mass ejection (CME) hits Earth at a speed of around 2000 km/h and triggers a gigantic geomagnetic storm.

As with the Carrington Event or the , observers on the ground would be presented with a colorful aurora spectaclewhich would be a small consolation compared to the collapse of electrical networksovervoltages on power lines and satellites falling from orbit.

“If such a storm occurs, the drag of satellites (the frictional force that acts on especially those in low orbit, due to particles in the Earth’s upper atmosphere) can increase 400%with local peaks in atmospheric density”, explains Jorge Amayacoordinator of space meteorological modeling at ESA.

“This not only affects collision risks but also shortens lifespan of satellites, due to increased fuel consumption to compensate for orbital degradation”, adds the researcher.

According to Amaya, although satellites in low orbit may receive some atmospheric protection, a situation at the level of the Carrington Event would not allow no spaceship safe“.

The ESA training exercise resembles planning for a pandemic. “We will only feel its true effect on our society after the eventbut we have to be prepared and have plans in place to react immediately”, says Amaya.

Plan the future

The Sentinel-1D training provided the first opportunity to simulate a severe event in collaboration with ESA’s Space Meteorology Office.

Meanwhile, ESA continues with its Distributed Space Weather Sensor System (D3S), which will implement a new set of satelliteswhich will provide up-to-date data sources.

At the same time, the agency is preparing for the Virgil missionwhose launch date is scheduled for 2031. Once completed, Virgil will monitor hazardous solar events from the “side” of the sun.

From that angle, the system could alert teams on Earth to solar events more quickly than ever before, allowing engineers time to prepare vulnerable systems with a larger time window than has ever existed.

“The scale and variety of impacts have pushed us and our systems to the limit, but team dominated the challengeand that taught us that if we can manage that, we can manage any real contingency“, concludes Ormston.

However, something worse than the Carrington Event of 154 years ago could happen: …