The first days of harvest confirm: production is below expectations. Consequences of extreme heat and lack of rain.
A break already production of oil in Portugal should be around 20% compared to the previous campaign, instead of 10% pointed out in initial estimate, according to the largest national association in the sector, Olivum.
In a statement, Olivum – Associação de Olivicultores e Lagares de Portugal, based in Beja, updated the forecasts for the national olive growing campaign, now anticipating a drop in olive production of around 20% compared to last year’s campaign.
Contacted today by the Lusa agency, the executive director of Olivum, Susana Sassetti, highlighted that the drop in olive oil production is around the values of the decrease in the quantity of olives, that is, 20%, admitting, however, that there are still variations.
“It will depend on the income [da azeitona] in olive oil”warned the person in charge.
Susana Sassetti highlighted that, with this forecast of a 20% drop, national olive oil production should be between the 140,000 and 150,000 tonswhen, at the beginning of this month, Olivum’s forecast was 160,000 to 170,000 tons.
In the statement, this association stated that “the first days of harvest confirm that production is below expectations” and pointed out that the situation reflects “the impact of extreme heat and the absence of rain in the last four months.”
“In several areas of Portugal, drought and high temperatures during ripening caused fruit dehydrationaffecting productivity”, he said, stressing that even in irrigated olive groves “more water is needed and its lack is having a clear impact on the drop in production”.
Quoted in the statement, the executive director of Olivum stated that, “in the crucial months for the formation of olive oil”, the sector finds itself “facing a difficult scenario, practically without any precipitation”.
“This year, compared to the previous campaign, in many areas, the olive grove did not have the capacity to maintain normal fruit development. This scenario creates a climate of concern in the sector, which is facing a campaign marked by great variability between regions and varieties, but with a common tendency to reduce productivity”, he added.
The 2025/2026 olive growing campaign started this month and runs until December, in the case of Alentejo, and until January or February, in the case of the north of the country.
In the previous campaign, Olivum’s estimates, in October 2024, were that national production would be “between 170,000 and 180,000” tons of olive oil.
In January of this year, its executive director, Susana Sassetti, informed Lusa that the country would produce around 170,000 tons.
Olivum represents more than 53,000 hectares of olive groves in the country, 21 mills and around 70% of national olive oil production.
