- Andrej Babiš faces challenges due to different coalition partners.
- Instability in the coalition can lead to its disintegration.
- Mainly symbolic changes are expected in Czech foreign policy.
- Czech society is strongly polarized at the present time.
New Czech Prime Minister Andrej According to Czech political scientist Petr Jüptner, Babiš will not have it easy in the next election period, also because of the coalition partners he has. According to him, the different attitudes of the ANO, SPD and the Motorists party towards some issues could lead to instability in the coalition and eventually to its disintegration.
The director of the Institute of Political Studies at the Faculty of Social Sciences of Charles University in Prague (IPS FSV UK) emphasized in an interview with a TASR reporter that the Czech Republic does not expect a turnaround in foreign policy, except for symbolic changes.
Jüptner does not think that Babiš has changed since his previous tenure as prime minister. The difference compared to his previous governments will mainly be caused by different coalition partners. “Only the coalition partners of the previous government of Andrej Babiš and the current one determine, in my opinion, that the current period could be a little less stable and a little wilder,” said the political scientist.
He pointed out that the SPD was labeled as extremist in the report of the Ministry of the Interior, and Motoristi is a new entity that is quite ambitious. Moreover, if their honorary president Filip Turek did not become a minister in the end, it is possible, according to him, that they will want to “return” it to Babis.
As for the government’s foreign policy, according to the director of IPS at FSV UK, there will be no fundamental shift in it. He expects a certain continuity to be maintained, but at the same time, the Chairman of the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Parliament and the SPD movement, Tomio Okamura, as well as Babiš, according to him, will make it clear to the voters that the Czech Republic is in the first place for them. “A typical ‘Brussels schizophrenia’ can occur, as we see, for example, with Robert Fico, but also with Viktor Orbán, that in certain periods of time they spoke differently to their partners in Europe and differently to their voters,” he explained.
However, according to him, the change will undoubtedly take place on a symbolic level, which Okamura has already started. As the first step after taking office, he had the Ukrainian flag hung from the building of the Chamber of Deputies, or later did not take any MP from the opposition on his first foreign visit to Slovakia. According to Jüptner, it can happen that in an effort to retain his voters, Okamura will speak to the media on various topics, including policy towards Ukraine, in a way that, if it were up to him, he would go even further than the government.
This can subsequently cause tension in the coalition and, according to the political scientist, it is not excluded that it could potentially fall apart. He reminded that Babiš currently needs both the SPD and the Motorists to gain the trust of his government in the House of Representatives. As soon as he gets it, it is possible that the prime minister will be tougher on them, he added.
The Czech Republic currently has an indicted Prime Minister and Speaker of the House of Representatives. “It is undoubtedly something that we could not have imagined 15 years ago… We would have considered it scandalous and unacceptable,” Jüptner thinks. However, according to him, the current society is very polarized, political parties, their marketing and communication have changed. There is a strong mobilization and polarization of voters, and for some of them these things are no longer so fundamental, he explained, adding that this is not only happening in the Czech Republic, but also pointing to the United States, for example.
