Ukrainian forces face increasing pressure in the south of the country, where less equipped units are clearly outnumbered by Russian brigades, which have conquered hundreds of square kilometers of territory in recent weeks.
The Russian military advanced in the open field in several areas of the southern region of Zaporizhia. An official from the Security Services of Ukraine (SBU) told CNN this Wednesday that the situation in the region was “intense”.
“The enemy is trying to strengthen its negotiating position by seeking to capture more territory,” said the officer, known by the code name “Bankir”.
According to the military, Russian forces are using small groups of infantry “that try to break through by any means, by any route, towards the least protected positions”.
Much of the recent fighting has been concentrated in and around the town of Huliaipole. The town is located around 80 kilometers east of the regional capital, Zaporíjia, which before the war had a population of over 700,000 inhabitants.
Russian victory claim
At a meeting held on Sunday, attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the commander of the region, Colonel-General Andrei Ivanev, demanded the capture of the city.
Ivanaev told Putin that his forces had captured more than 210 square kilometers of territory in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions since the beginning of December, fueling the Kremlin narrative that Russia will eventually achieve its goal of occupying four regions in eastern and southern Ukraine.
The unofficial conflict monitoring platform, Deepstatereported on Monday that Ukrainian troops continued to hold their positions in parts of Huliaipole, but that the area was now a “gray zone”, with the Russians having “many more personnel” at their disposal.
Reinforcing positions in the city was difficult as it was a low altitude area, added the Deepstate.
The Ukrainians rely heavily on drones in areas where they lack infantry. In the open field, this equipment is effective in neutralizing Russian platoons. However, built-up areas, with abandoned buildings and cellars, offer protection to invading troops.
Weak defenses and heavy losses
Last week, video showed Russian troops seizing a Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole, examining laptop computers and files left behind.
The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, acknowledged the capture of the command post “due to weak defenses.”
A territorial brigade “was unable to resist the enemy’s pressure during the fighting” and gradually withdrew, explained Syrskyi, criticizing the battalion for abandoning confidential information.
“Ukrainian forces will be able to remain only in the western part [de Huliaipole]”, according to another independent monitoring entity, the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT). “Under these conditions, Huliaipole, like Pokrovsk, may have already been effectively captured,” the organization said.
“These troops maintained their positions for a long time and suffered extremely heavy losses in recent months, but were not rotated to the rear for rest and replenishment,” the CIT added.
The military dilemma and difficult choices
What happened at Huliaipole goes to the heart of the Ukrainian military dilemma. His troops are clearly outnumbered in some parts of the thousand-kilometer front line and are struggling to mobilize additional forces to compensate for losses, according to several observers.
“This means commanders have to make difficult choices about where to attack, where to defend and where to hope the Russians don’t exploit gaps in Ukrainian lines,” analyst David Ax wrote Wednesday.
“A few territorial battalions cannot be expected to be able to stop a Russian motorized infantry brigade, especially if the territorials do not have strong support from adjacent artillery and drone units,” Ax noted.
The lack of coherent command between Kiev’s forces in the south and the decision to prioritize the defense of other areas, such as Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, also contributed to the worsening of the situation in the southern region.
In mid-December, the Ukrainian command diverted several elite units to Huliaipole, but “it was too little and too late” to save the city, the analyst concluded.
