More than 75,000 people were killed in the first 16 months of the two-year war in , at least 25,000 more than the number of casualties reported by local authorities at the time, according to a study published yesterday, Wednesday, February 18, 2026, in the medical journal .
Accurate numbers from the Ministry. Gaza Health
The investigation also found that reports by the Gaza health ministry about the proportion of women, children and the elderly among the victims were accurate.
Women and children
According to the study, a total of 42,200 women, children and the elderly died between October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel that triggered a devastating Israeli assault on Gaza, and January 5, 2025. These deaths accounted for 56% of violent deaths in Gaza.
Violent and non-violent deaths
“The overall evidence suggests that, by January 5, 2025, 3-4% of the population of the Gaza Strip had been killed violently and that there were a significant number of non-violent deaths caused indirectly by the conflict,” the study’s authors, a team including an economist, demographer, epidemiologist and research experts, wrote in the Lancet Global Health.
Intense controversy
The exact number of casualties in Gaza has been hotly contested, although last month a senior Israeli security official told Israeli journalists that figures compiled by health authorities in Gaza were broadly accurate, marking a 180-degree turn after years of official attacks on the data.
The official was quoted as saying that around 70,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli attacks on the territory since October 2023, excluding the missing.
Gaza health authorities report that the immediate death toll from Israeli attacks has exceeded 71,660 people.
Researcher’s Scissors – Gaza for the dead
Researchers who published a study in the Lancet last year estimated that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the war, as given by the Palestinian territories’ health ministry, was about 40 percent lower than their estimate.
Gaza death toll underestimated
The new research also suggests that the official death toll was significantly underestimated, by a similar percentage. It was based on a survey of 2,000 families in Gaza, carefully selected to be representative of the area’s population, and asked to provide details of deaths among their members. The survey was conducted by experienced Palestinian pollsters, known for their work in Palestine and elsewhere in the region.
Sensitive research
“This is a very sensitive survey, which can be very embarrassing (for respondents), so it was important that both the questioners and the answerers were Palestinian,” said Michael Spagat, professor of economics at Royal Holloway, University of London, one of the authors of the peer-reviewed study.
Malnutrition and disease
Spagat, who has been calculating conflict casualties for more than 20 years, said the new research suggests that 8,200 deaths in Gaza from October 2023 to January 2025 are due to indirect effects such as malnutrition or untreated diseases.
“Desensitization Effect”
“There are huge differences depending on the specific circumstances of each conflict. In Kosovo (1998-99 conflict) almost all deaths were violent. In places like Darfur, the situation is very different. In Gaza, at least initially, there were resources in terms of well-trained doctors and a health system…Also, the territory is very small, so when the aid arrives, you can reach the people,” Spagat said.
“I would like to refute the view that this is a small number of deaths. I think we’re experiencing a desensitization effect… But, yes, it’s much lower than a lot of people say and believe.”
The October 2023 Hamas raid left around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, dead, while 250 were captured by the militant Islamist group. Israel launched its retaliatory offensive within hours, devastating much of Gaza with airstrikes, tank bombardments and artillery.
Famine in Gaza
The study covers the most intense and deadly period of the Israeli offensive, but not the most acute period of the humanitarian crisis in the region. In August last year, UN-backed experts declared famine in Gaza.
Combatants and civilians
The proportion of militant and civilian casualties in Gaza has also been the subject of intense controversy. Israeli officials claim that their attacks caused an almost equal number of casualties in both categories. The new study refutes this claim.
In November, a research team from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research estimated that 78,318 people had been killed in Gaza between October 7, 2023 and December 31, 2024 – almost exactly the same period as the new study. However, this research also indicated a much higher number of indirect deaths, which contributed to a reduction in life expectancy in Gaza by 44% in 2023 and 47% in 2024.
Margin of error
Spagat said that ascertaining the final number of victims of the conflict will require a lot of time and significant resources. Even the figures provided in the most recent study published this week have a significant margin of error.
“It is not certain that there will be a multi-million pound research project to piece together what really happened. It will be a long time before we get a full account of all the people killed in Gaza, if we ever get to that point,” he said.
