A detailed analysis of the nominees, highlighting the historic chances of Brazil and its main rivals at the March ceremony
The race for the 2026 Oscars entered its final stretch with the official announcement of the nominees by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. The ceremony, scheduled for March 15, 2026, promises to be historic for South American cinema. The Best International Film category attracted the global spotlight, polarizing the dispute between a triumphant return of Brazilian cinema and the definitive consecration of contemporary European authors.
This guide brings together essential information about the five finalists, analyzing their plots, casts and their real chances of winning.
The great Brazilian favorite: ‘The Secret Agent’
Representing Brazil, the production directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho reaches the awards with unprecedented strength. The film not only secured its place among international films, but also broke barriers by winning nominations in main categories, including Best Film and Best Actor (Wagner Moura), repeating the critical prestige of City of God and I’m Still Here.
Synopsis and plot
Set in Recife in 1977, during the leaden years of the Military Dictatorship, the political thriller follows Marcelo (Moura), a university professor who flees São Paulo to the Northeast in an attempt to escape political persecution. However, he discovers that repression has much longer and silent tentacles than he imagined. The film mixes paranoid suspense with social drama, exploring the urban tension typical of Kleber’s filmography.
Cast and technical sheet
Direction: Kleber Mendonça Filho;
Main Cast: Wagner Moura, Maria Fernanda Cândido and Gabriel Leone;
Emphasis: Wagner Moura’s performance has been celebrated internationally as “volcanic and restrained”, placing him as one of the frontrunners also in the acting category;
O principal rival: “Sentimental Value” (Norway);
If there is an obstacle between Brazil and the statuette, it comes from Scandinavia. “Valor Sentimental” marks the return of the acclaimed partnership between director Joachim Trier and actress Renate Reinsve (duo from The Worst Person in the World). The film is a darling of European critics and won important awards during the festival season.
Synopsis and plot
The plot is a metalinguistic family drama. Nora (Reinsve) is an actress who, together with her sister, tries to reconnect with her father, an eccentric and decadent filmmaker, after years of estrangement. The goal is to make a film together, but the artistic process ends up unearthing old traumas and painful secrets about family dynamics and grief.
Reasons for favoritism
The Academy has a recent history of rewarding humanistic family dramas. Trier’s narrative is described as “emotionally devastating,” and Norway’s campaign has been aggressive in Hollywood.
The political force: ‘It was just an accident’ (France)
France surprised by selecting the work of Iranian veteran Jafar Panahi as its official representative. The film, which won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, has an immense political charge, given the director’s history of persecution in his home country.
Synopsis and plot
In a tense narrative, a group of former political prisoners living in exile in Paris believe they recognized, in a chance meeting on the subway, the man who was their torturer decades ago. The film unfolds as a moral study about justice, revenge and the memory of pain, questioning whether violence is a valid response to trauma.
Running on the outside: Spain and Tunisia
Although the dispute seems to be centralized between Brazil, Norway and France, two other films complete the list with powerful narratives that may surprise.
‘Sirât’ (Spain)
A visually stunning drama that explores the Moorish roots of southern Spain through a story of fantastical realism. Critics praised his photography and unique approach to immigration and cultural identity.
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunísia)
Based on real events, this docudrama reconstructs the last hours of a family in a conflict zone, using real audio and minimalist staging. It is considered the most “difficult” and impactful film on the list, with a strong humanitarian appeal.
Curiosities about the 2026 season
Brazilian record: With four nominations in total, The Secret Agent became the Portuguese-language production with the greatest presence in a single edition of the Oscars in recent history;
Double Indication: Joachim Trier (Norway) and Kleber Mendonça Filho (Brazil) had already competed indirectly in previous festivals, creating a healthy and respectful rivalry between cinephiles;
Absence of Blockbusters: Unlike previous years, the 2026 category is dominated purely by auteur cinema, without the presence of major war epics financed by gigantic studios.
Where to watch the nominees
The distribution of films in Brazil follows the strategic calendar for the Oscars:
Cinemas: The Secret Agent is already showing on a wide national circuit. Valor Sentimental and Foi Só um Acidente have premieres scheduled for the weeks leading up to the ceremony (February/March), focusing on the art circuit and major networks;
Streaming: The titles are expected to reach digital platforms (such as MUBI, Netflix or Max) only after the awards ceremony, in mid-April 2026, with the exception of the Brazilian film, which may have a reduced window depending on its performance at the box office.
This edition of the Oscars carries symbolic weight for the Latin American market. A victory for The Secret Agent would not only be an award for the film, but the correction of a historical gap between the Academy and Brazilian cinema, consolidating the prestige of the country’s cultural recovery on the global stage.
