He seems to be out of control. On the one hand despite the negative decision of the US Supreme Court. And on the other hand with new movements of fighter aircraft and naval means.
The American president seems to place himself above the rule of law, considering that his political strategy exceeds even the decisions of judges he appointed. This raises serious questions about US institutional stability and the president’s ability to respect the limits of his powers.
The tariffs
President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he would increase the global tariffs he had imposed the previous day from 10% to 15%, following a negative ruling by the US Supreme Court.
The court ruled that it exceeded its powers by imposing the tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, which is reserved for national emergencies. Trump reacted by calling the decision “deeply disappointing” and expressed his displeasure with the justices, including his own appointees.
Despite the legal challenges, Trump intends to raise the global tariff immediately, saying the administration will determine the new details and announce them in the coming months.
Those tariffs will make this year’s effective tariff rate about 6%, as calculated by the Tax Foundation, as a percentage of imported goods. US law allows the president to impose temporary tariffs of up to 15% under Section 122, but these require congressional approval after 150 days.
Trump had imposed sweeping tariffs last year, including so-called “reciprocal” tariffs of up to 50% on countries such as India and Brazil, and up to 145% on China. Meanwhile, the administration has used other legislation, such as Section 232, to impose tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, lumber, furniture, automobiles, and auto parts.
There is also the possibility of imposing tariffs through Section 301 on countries that violate trade agreements or engage in unfair practices, and in extreme cases tariffs can reach 50%, which may conflict with World Trade Organization rules as reported by CNN.
Tariff winners and losers
The 15% tariffs temporarily benefit countries that previously faced higher tariffs, including Brazil, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa. However, other countries such as Argentina, Australia, Saudi Arabia and the UK will face increased tariffs. Countries that had secured trade deals with Trump are considered temporary “winners,” although the administration can impose new tariffs on specific industries through other powers.
The change in tariffs also affects major US retailers such as Walmart, Target, Costco and Amazon, which are expected to benefit from the lower charges.
In contrast, the imposition of previous tariffs had negatively affected companies such as Home Depot, Lowe’s and IKEA. In the auto sector, the tariffs on parts were “reciprocal”, which is a positive for manufacturers such as GM, Ford and Toyota. Despite the lower rates, consumers may not see a significant reduction in prices immediately due to uncertainty about refunds and a delay in repricing products in stores.
Finally, Trump is expected to address global trade policy during his State of the Union address on Tuesday, while uncertainty remains over the implementation of tariffs, reactions from trading partners and their impact on American consumers and businesses.
Iran’s options in the event of an attack
For almost half a century, Iran has been preparing for a war with the United States. Unable to compete with America’s military might, Tehran has been looking for ways to focus on ways to impose heavy costs that could shake the Middle East and the global economy.
Even as negotiations with Iran continue, the US military is moving ahead with a major air and naval buildup in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump has hinted at regime change and warned he could hit Iran, fueling fears of a wider war.
Despite being significantly weakened by Israeli and US attacks last summer and facing growing internal turmoil, the Iranian regime retains a host of options for retaliation, experts say, from attacks on US and Israeli interests to mobilizing allies and economic interventions that could cause global upheaval.
How Tehran will use the tools at its disposal depends on the level of threat it perceives itself to face.
Missiles and drones
Iran reportedly has thousands of missiles and drones within range of US forces in the Middle East and has threatened to hit them, as has Israel.
In June, after a surprise attack by Israel, the Islamic Republic retaliated with waves of ballistic missiles and drones, bypassing Israel’s advanced air defenses. Iranian authorities say the weapons stockpile has been replenished, and U.S. officials say those weapons, along with aging Russian and U.S. fighters, still pose a threat.
Mobilization of allies
Iran has a network of allies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, who promise to defend the country in the event of an attack. Despite military pressure from Israel and the US, groups such as Kataeb Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen remain significant threats.
Economic war
Iran has the potential to damage the global economy, primarily through the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20% of the world’s oil and a significant portion of LNG passes. Closing the strait could trigger a spike in fuel prices and a global financial crisis.
The Iranian navy has underground bases and fast ships for the Persian Gulf. Historically, Iran has used mines to threaten shipping, such as during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.
