According to the survey, the senator registers 46.3% of voting intentions, while the president has 46.2%, configuring a tie within the margin of error
The Atlas/Bloomberg survey released this Wednesday (25) indicates strong polarization scenario in second round simulations for the 2026 presidential election, with technical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ). Both appear tied for the first time in the institute’s simulations.
In the main confrontation tested, registers 46.3% of voting intentions, while tem 46,2%, setting up a draw within the margin of error. In relation to the previous survey, Lula dropped three percentage points, while Flávio rose 1.4 points.
In the event of a repeat of the 2022 second round, Lula scores 44.9% and Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has 43.4%. In the same stimulated scenario, Ciro Gomes (PSDB) appears with 3.8% and Simone Tebet (MDB), with 2%.
The survey heard 4,986 Brazilian adults between February 19th and 24thcom margin of error of 1 percentage point e 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the TSE under number BR-07600/2026.
The institute also tested Lula against other names from the right and center-right. Against Jair Bolsonarothe PT member records 47,3%, ante 45,4% of the opponent. In dispute with Michelle BolsonaroLula has 47.5%, while it totals 44.7%.
Contra Romeu Zema (New)Lula appears with 46%in front of 41,7%. Already in front of Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)the president marks 45,7%, contra 37,6%.
In comparison with Ratinho Junior (PSDB)Lula has 45,5%while the governor records 39%. Already against Eduardo Leite (PSD)the PT member adds 45,2%, ante 24,5%.
Lula appears numerically behind only against Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). In this scenario, Tarcísio records 47.1%, while Lula has 45.9%.
Rejection and risk perception
The survey also shows that Lula is rejected by 48.2% of voters. Flávio Bolsonaro has a 46.4% rejection ratee Jair Bolsonaro, 44.2%.
Asked which electoral result would generate more fear, 47.5% said that Lula’s re-election would cause more fear, while 44.9% said that Flávio Bolsonaro’s victory would be more worrying. For 7.1%, both outcomes generate equivalent concern.
The scenario reinforces the maintenance of polarization between Lulism and expanded Bolsonarismcom tight disputes and high rejection rates at both poles.
*With Estadão Content
