A problem is already being discussed in the financial market in addition to the potential bubble that artificial intelligence may be forming.
One of the main drivers of modern economies is consumer spending – on average, the component represents 60% to 70% of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. And even large technology companies have the purchase of their services as the main pillar of their revenue.
dystopian future
What the North American consultancy Citrini Research points out, however, is that AI may be preparing its own trap, and the optimism around it may, in fact, be what leads to pessimism.
Citrini’s report presents “a scenario, not a prediction” for June 2028, in which it describes “the evolution and consequences” of what it called the “Global Intelligence Crisis”.
In this context, AI evolves to the point of making work obsolete, putting people on the streets and ending workers’ consumption power.
“When cracks began to appear in the consumer economy, economic experts popularized the expression ‘phantom GDP’: production that appears in national accounts, but never circulates through the real economy”, since wealth does not actually reach a worker, who eventually becomes a consumer and circulates money, according to the report.
In an interview with CNN MoneyPedro Burgos, professor at Insper and founder of Co.Inteligência, highlighted that the bull market – a earnings cycle, in free translation from financial market jargon – for AI it could end up becoming a bear market – a cycle of losses – for the economy.
“The complex puzzle is this, if you bet big that AI will continue to advance, that looks good for Nvidia, for OpenAI, for Anthropic in the short term, but at some point, if the prophecies come true and these things are able to replace more jobs, that will start to affect the consumer market,” Burgos explained.
Effects seen now
Formed by former members of OpenAI – ChatGPT’s parent company -, which like its cousin is based on LLM (large language models).
The company has already established itself as one of the main references in generative AI and aims to further expand the capabilities of this technology.
On the one hand, the startup presents a model aimed at the common public, the Claude Sonnet 4.5, which handles long tasks better, understands instructions more accurately and performs better in common activities, such as summarizing documents, creating texts and reviewing codes.
On the other, there is the new Claude Opus 4.6 model, which was designed to make the Cowork AI assistant more efficient for office and programming tasks, which could further increase concerns that the AI tool could replace specialized software that companies use for these tasks.
When announced, a series of functions are still performed by people in the job market.
“The market is watching how artificial intelligence will change the world. Last week, there were consulting and software companies with their shares falling 10%, 20%. People are evaluating how AI will impact some sectors that were very good”, , presenter of Hot Market and CNN Brazilinstitutional director of XP Inc. and president of Ancord (National Association of Stock Brokers).
“But, for example, if I manage to program my own internal control systems using my AI system, what will be the value of these software companies in the future? Nobody knows. These are companies that could perhaps be decimated. There is a huge doubt”, he points out.
held last week in India, the CEO of Anthropic, Dario Amodei, argued that .
Citrini’s report had repercussions on the financial market, after being published on Sunday (22), and, according to analysts,.
Co-author of the research note, economist Alap Shah questions that “our entire economic system is based on a fundamental premise: human intelligence is a scarce and expensive resource.”
“It is the essential input to transform raw materials into goods and services that dictate our living standards. In 2026, with the maturation of active AI, this fundamental premise is crumbling”, he concludes.
