. The joint attack on Iranian territory has shaken one of the energy cores of the planet. And Tehran’s response—the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to international maritime traffic—has set off all the alarms.
The result is already tangible: The barrel of Brent has become more expensive by around 10% in just a few days. But what is truly relevant is not at the pump, but in what happens behind it.
The world’s energy bottleneck
This maritime corridor of just 55 kilometers between Iran and Oman It functions as the main artery through which approximately one fifth of the oil and liquefied natural gas traded in the world circulates. That’s where the crude oil from energy giants like Saudi Arabia, Iraq or the United Arab Emirates heading, above all, to Asia.
Its blockade represents more than just a logistical problem: directly limits global supply capacity. There are alternative routes – pipelines to the Red Sea or the Gulf of Oman – but their capacity is insufficient to replace normal maritime traffic.
In parallel, the expanded Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) had announced a slight increase in production starting in April. However, producing more does not solve anything if it cannot be transported.
An extremely sensitive market
Today the planet consumes slightly more 106 million barrels per day. Iran contributes nearly 3.3 million, with more than two million destined for export, mainly to China. It may seem like an acceptable fraction but it is not.
Energy markets operate with very tight margins. The disappearance of even a small percentage of the supply It is enough to put pressure on prices immediately.
This explains that Brent is already reach levels not seen since the energy crisis after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. And some forecasts suggest that it could climb to $100 in a matter of days if the situation does not normalize.
Strait of Hormuz on the map
If the closure is prolonged
The real risk is not in the initial shock, but in the duration. If transit through Hormuz remained blocked for weeks, the potential loss of up to 20% of global oil flow could not be easily compensated.
Although there are strategic reserves accumulated by governments and companies —a lesson learned after the crises of the 70s—its function is to buy time, not replace supply.
A prolonged scenario would open the door to:
- A barrel above 150 dollars
- Production problems in energy-intensive industries
- Rationing measures in extreme cases
It would not be the first time that an energy disruption triggers an economic crisis. History offers clear precedents: since the oil embargo after the Yom Kippur War in 1973 until the turbulence derived from the Iranian Revolution of 1979.
The real impact: much more than refueling
The increase in fuel prices will be immediate. But the domino effect goes much further. Oil is present in:
- Transport
- Industrial production
- Logistics
- Fertilizers
- Plastics
When its price rises, the cost of moving goods also rises. and that ends passing on to the consumer in the form of inflation.
Not only will the price of filling the tank increase, but also that of food, consumer goods or services. Furthermore, in countries where there is still dependence on heating systems based on petroleum derivatives, The impact will reach directly to homes.
unexpected winners
Not everyone would lose in this scenario. A global rise in crude oil prices would reinforce exporters who continue to sell large volumes despite international sanctions. Russia, for example, could benefit from higher prices even if it maintains discounts compared to the market.
Can the closure be maintained?
The big question is how long this situation will last. Iran also depends on the strait for its own exports and imports, making an indefinite closure unlikely. However, a total blockade would not even be necessary: the mere threat to transit can deter shipping companies and insurers, reducing the real flow of oil.
A shock with lasting consequences
Beyond the immediate impact, a new energy crisis would strain economies again that still carry the consequences of the inflationary shock after 2022.
Experience shows that these situations tend to accelerate debates on energy independence and the transition to renewables. But the change is not automatic: High prices alone do not guarantee a transformation of the model.
What is certain is that, as long as oil remains the engine of global trade, any disruption in hotspots like Hormuz will continue to have a direct translation into the cost of living. And this time, it has already started.
