(Bloomberg) — Luxury watch devotees can now bet on where the price of their beloved Rolex will go — or which Patek Philippe model will be discontinued.
Kalshi Inc. is working with watch marketplace Bezel to create so-called event contracts tied to high-end watches as part of an effort to expand collectibles, according to company executives.
It’s the latest release in a series of prediction products tied to items like sneakers and even Labubus and Pokémon cards. Contracts allow users to negotiate outcomes such as whether an item will exceed a certain price threshold or whether a brand will launch a new model.
Watches have “been seen as a financial market for a long time, but they are also driven by passion, and a lot of people just collect because they like having something on their wrist,” Quaid Walker, CEO and co-founder of Bezel, said in an interview.
Prediction markets and platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have been attracting interest and financial support from large institutions. Kalshi, valued at $11 billion, recently struck a deal with Tradeweb Markets Inc. to transmit its prices and data to investment managers.
Accelerated growth does not come without challenges. Regulators in several US states challenged the deal, arguing that its sports-related contracts constitute betting, not a derivatives market. There are also concerns about market manipulation, insider trading and other controversies. This weekend, as US and Israeli bombs fell on Iran, traders rushed to profit.
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At Polymarket, contracts linked to the moment of the US attacks had already moved more than US$529 million in volume and faced immediate questions about whether people with privileged information had profited from the conflict.
Read more: Iran attacks expose the dark side of the era of prediction markets
Bezel has developed its own mathematical tool to price watches for buyers and sellers based on real-time sales data. This pricing model will be integrated into Kalshi’s platform as part of event contracts, the companies said.
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Collecting luxury watches — some of which fetch prices in the millions of dollars — has too high a barrier to entry for many, Walker said, adding that event contracts can offer a way for enthusiasts to participate with less capital. This “expands the watch market and brings more people into the hobby,” he said.
Founded in 2018 by two Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) graduates, Kalshi allows users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of various real-world events, including sports and politics. The business is licensed and supervised by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
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