Investigations into the campaign should invade the campaign period and lead the minister of the (Supreme Federal Court) to make decisions that could shuffle the political chessboard on the eve of the general elections.
The magistrate’s assistants already admit that this is an inevitable scenario, given the potential involvement of competent authorities in financial fraud.
In , aeo (National Institute of Social Security) regarding one of the president’s sons (PT) reinforced, among politicians from the center, the perception that the magistrate —rapporteur of the two cases— will have a decisive role in the October election.
Messages intercepted on Vorcaro’s cell phone show that the businessman had relationships with several people in the political world.
He made reference to the president of , senator (PI), as one, narrated one of the president of , Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), and says that .
Government and opposition are betting on a tight dispute between Lula and the senator (PL-RJ), who already appear tied in the second round in some voting intention polls. The result, in the assessment of politicians in Brasília, is that the margin will be close to the 2022 presidential election, when the PT member.
In this scenario, any fact can influence the election, and Mendonça has under his scrutiny the two investigations that currently cause the most concern in the Republic, say parliamentarians. A deputy from the top of the center sums it up by saying that, while some ministers have machine guns and rifles, Mendonça has two atomic bombs.
Mendonça has told interlocutors that, in the ideal scenario, decisions of great impact —preventive detention orders, for example— should be avoided during the electoral period. However, as the crimes investigated in the Master and INSS cases are considered extremely serious, the minister has said that he would be willing to face them, even if his determinations could be politically exploited.
When taking on the role of rapporteur for the investigation into Master, replacing Minister Dias Toffoli, on February 12, Mendonça found that 111 cell phones seized by the Federal Police in Operation Compliance Zero were practically untouched. This reinforced the judge’s view that there is still a lot of material pending analysis, that is, that the investigations are far from an outcome.
The initial reaction of parliamentarians from the center to the new arrest of the owner was mixed: some expressed fear that the elections would be conducted by police operations and interference from the Judiciary – which could also affect the leaders of União Brasil and PP – and another party believed that Vorcaro would not be long in coming, which would have the STF itself as its main target.
This is because the PF found mentions of Toffoli on Vorcaro’s cell phone. The episode led the corporation to appoint , the former rapporteur of the Master case. The Supreme Court ruled out this possibility, but, under pressure, the judge ended up opting for . He denies having received money from the banker or having any friendly relationship with the businessman.
Another damage caused by the Master case to the image of the Supreme Court was the monthly agreement signed by the financial institution with the office of lawyer Viviane Barci, wife of minister Alexandre de Moraes.
The minister states that magistrates are responsible for any case for which their relatives advocate.
Centrão parliamentarians say that any accusations against the Supreme Court, in the short term, would harm the PT electorally, due to the Bolsonarist narrative that the ministers most affected are allies of the Lula government and also due to the impact that the general perception of corruption in the country may have on the government’s image.
A PT member heard by the Sheet admits that this speech is not positive for Lula, as it puts the Supreme Court under suspicion and, consequently, reinforces the right-wing theory that Bolsonaro’s trial for attempting a coup d’état was politically motivated. The former president was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison.
Another negative consequence for the government, according to politicians from the center and the left, is keeping the climate of tension in Brasília high. Unlike what happened in the first years of Lula’s government, STF ministers have criticized the president behind the scenes. Furthermore, the president of , (-AP), whose allies are being investigated by the PF for investments by the Amapá pension fund in Banco Master, handed the Executive recent defeats.
Mendonça, according to politicians from the center, will have the power to influence the presidential election as he can dictate the pace of the investigation and the dissemination of information about the top power in Brasília.
The minister was nominated by the former president (PL) and with conservative and religious leaders on the right, who helped him reach the position despite the open opposition of Alcolumbre, who held his hearing for months in the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee.
PT members rely on Mendonça’s moderate profile to say that there will be no persecution and that it is the image of the STF itself that is at stake. Some claim, however, that the minister is not immune to political influences, as when he requested a view of the criminal action against deputy Silas Câmara (Republicanos-AM), leader of the evangelical group who was accused of taking part of the advisors’ salaries, leaving room for the process to expire.
There is concern among PT members, for example, about the breach of banking, tax and telematic secrecy of Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, or one of the pivots of the INSS scandal, the lobbyist Antonio Carlos Camilo Antunes, known as Careca of the INSS.
Under Mendonça’s report, the PF will have information to know which version is true: that of the complaint, that he had received R$300,000 per month as a silent partner of the lobbyist, or that of the lawyers, that there were never payments — and that Lulinha had other business with Careca from the INSS that did not involve public money, but rather a role in regulating the cannabidiol sector.
A PT leader minimizes the damage caused by the operations on Lula and claims that the president has in his favor the speech that he allowed the PF to investigate freely and that his government did not collude with corruption even when the investigations reached close to his son.
