The European fighter of the future is on the verge of collapse and “may end up dying”

Dassault does not accept a “co-co-co” management model and issued an ultimatum to Airbus: either they cooperate on the FCAS project, the future European combat fighter, or the most ambitious European defense program of the last decade will be terminated.

The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), the joint military program of France, Germany and Spain to develop the sixth generation fighter which is expected to dominate European skies by mid-century, is in critical condition.

Eric Trappierexecutive director of aerospace Dassault Aviationthe French company responsible for the new generation combat aircraft, left an unambiguous warning this week: “If Airbus maintains its position of not wanting to work with Dassault, the topic is dead”.

The substantive dispute is a war of egos with the potential to have serious consequences for European defense. Dassault claims technical leadership of the fighter, while Airbus, which represents the interests of Germany and Spain in the consortium, refuses to accept a subordinate role.

“Dassault was named leader. I understand that Airbus does not like this decision, but we are ensuring compliance with the contract”, says Trappier. Dassault CEO says not being able to accept a “co-co-co” management modelthat is, a tripartite co-direction that, in his opinion, only paralyzes decisions.

A Fracture is not just business. The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merzfueled the crisis by stating that Berlin needed different capabilities than Paris: Germany doesn’t want a nuclear-capable fighterbut France does, which opens the door to the possibility of developing two different planes.

To Paul Taylordefense and security researcher at the European Policy Centre, the diagnosis is even more severe, says: “My impression is that a year or two ago it became clear that FCAS is dead. But it doesn’t fall apart once and for all, because it’s a political project.”

FCAS is not just an airplane. It is an air warfare ecosystem announced almost 9 years ago and which includes three components: the NGF (Next Generation Fighter) itself, a fleet of autonomous drones that act as intelligent escorts and the so-called “combat cloud”, a real-time communications network capable of connecting all military assets in the theater of operations.

The estimated cost of the program is 100 billion euros. According to the original contract, Dassault directs NGF developmentwhile Airbus leads the drone segment — something that Trappier accepts without reservation.

“Dassault will be a subcontractor for Airbus on drones and that doesn’t worry us in the slightest”, he guarantees.

The conflict arises because Airbus does not want to be relegated in the most emblematic component of the program, the fighter. Without a single leader who makes decisions about design, subcontractors and technical responsibilities, the plane cannot move forward.

The question no one wants to answer out loud is whether Europe can afford to let this program die. France, Germany and Spain will have to decide soon whether to move on to the next phase of FCAS or partially abandon it — perhaps preserving the drone components and combat cloud but dropping the joint aircraft.

“It is the best use of our money to develop several planes? We must have a European standard”, said the French President, Emmanuel Macronduring a visit to India.

Germany, however, has an alternative on the table: join the British GCAP program, also known as Tempest, developed with Italy and Japan and scheduled to fly in 2035, five years before FCAS.

Tufan Erginbilgicchief executive of Rolls-Royce, which makes the engines for the British fighter, said he would be “definitely open” to Germany joining the program.

If FCAS ends up fragmenting completely, the most likely scenario points to two parallel lines of development: a French fighter led by Dassault and another German-Spanish fighter under the control of Airbus — a perfect paradox for a project designed, precisely, to avoid this duplication.