The German Greens have defended their leading position in the prosperous land of Baden-Württembergwith 31.6% of the votes, according to the vote projections of public television ZDF at 7:00 p.m. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Friedrich Merz was more than a point below the environmentalists, with 30.2%, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has doubled its results and is positioned as the third force with 18%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) has suffered a historic setback and has been left on the tightrope of 5.4%, less than half a point above the minimum necessary to obtain seats.
If these results are confirmed, the Green candidate, Cem Özdemir will foreseeably become the first politician of Turkish origin – he was born in the “land”, the son of immigrants – to head a regional government in Germany. To do this, it must form a coalition with the CDU as a junior partner, the constellation that until now ruled in that southern region of the country.
The Baden-Württemberg elections opened the electoral year in Germany and had the rank of test at the polls for Merz’s CDU, who in May will celebrate his first year as chancellor. In total they will take place in 2026 five regional electionswho make up approximately a quarter of the country’s electorate.
Merz had chosen Stuttgart, the capital of the “land”, as the venue for the CDU federal congress held in mid-February. There he was re-elected as party leader by 91% of the votes and there the chancellor launched his team for victory in this year’s round of regional elections.
The first stage has not gone according to Merz’s wishes. Although his party has risen four points compared to the previous elections, this rise has a certain air of defeat since a few weeks ago its candidate, Manuel Hagelwas emerging as a favorite.
A few weeks ago an even more spectacular result was predicted for the extreme right, with 20%. A series of nepotism scandals have apparently dented their credibility.
Victory for an environmentalist with a lot of filming
Baden-Würrtemberg, with more than eleven million citizens, is a region identified with economic and industrial prosperity. There you have your central large automobile groups, such as Daimler-Benz, Audi and Porsche.
It was for decades a conservative fiefdom, but in 2011 it became the first, and so far only, German “land” governed by the Greens. It was following the victory of the veteran Winfried Kretschmannwho has since led successive governments. He retires from active politics at the age of 77 and as a representative of the so-called “realist” path of environmentalists, the same as Özdemir.
The challenge of retaining the position of first force was taken on by Özdemir, a well-known politician on a national scale. In 1994 he became the first deputy of Turkish origin in the federal Parliament, then He led the Greens between 2008 and 2018 and was Minister of Agriculture in the government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, between 2021 and 2025..
Özdemir assumed the candidacy as his return to his “land” and, at the same time, with the hope of being a lifeline for the Greens, who have been in the doldrums since the collapse of Scholz’s coalition. His victory is a personal successbased on his experience, since at the beginning of the campaign third place was predicted.
The CDU candidate, Manuel Hagelis a little-known face. But Merz entrusted him with the task of recovering the dominance lost fifteen years ago in Baden-Württemberg. Özdemir and Hagel, aged 60 and 37, have behaved in the campaign almost like soulmates, determined to keep the AfD isolated.
This Sunday’s regional elections will be followed in a fortnight by those of Rhineland-Palatinate, whose government is led by the Social Democrats. The next round will be in September, with elections in two eastern states, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, as well as in the capital, Berlin.
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