Democrat initiative targets Polymarket and Kalshi after accounts profited US$1.2 million from Iranri leader’s death
Democratic Representatives Mike Levin and Chris Murphy have drafted a bill to regulate prediction markets in the United States. The initiative targets platforms such as and . The information is from the news agency .
The move comes after transactions generated significant profits just before military operations in Iran. The analytics firm Bubblemaps identified that 6 accounts made a profit of US$1.2 million from bets on Polymarket on the impeachment of Iran’s supreme leader, Khamenei. The transactions were carried out before Khamenei was in the airstrikes on Saturday (28.Feb.2026).
In January, other Democratic senators criticized prediction platforms after a mysterious operator made a profit of approximately US$410,000 by betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro (PSUV, left).
On Wednesday (Mar 5, 2026), Polymarket removed bets on the probability of a nuclear explosion anywhere in the world. The removal came after a negative reaction online.
A Kalshi spokesperson told Reuters that the platform prohibits and acts against operations with privileged information: “We also do not list markets directly linked to death”.
Polymarket stated that prediction markets harness the wisdom of crowds to create accurate and unbiased predictions.
CLIMBING IN TENSION
The event was held after weeks of tension between the 2 countries. On February 19, Trump stated that, within 10 days, he would know whether to give “one step forward” in relation to an attack against the Persian country.
Afterwards, the Republican declared that everyone, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces, Dan Caine, considers that a possible war against Iran would result in one.
In , on Tuesday (24.Feb), Trump said that the US had not yet heard Iran pronounce “those magic words: ‘we will never have a nuclear weapon’”. In his speech, the American president stated that the Persian regime “has already developed missiles that could threaten Europe and our bases abroad, and is working to build missiles that will soon reach the USA”.
Trump’s statements were made while dealing with Iran, which did not result in an agreement.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that the country if the Americans recognized its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes and lifted economic sanctions.
Read more about Israel and the US attack on Iran:
