Peshmerga soldiers from the PKK – Kurdistan Liberation Army
The US wants regime change in Iran, an objective difficult to achieve without troops on the ground. Washington is considering supporting an invasion carried out by armed Kurdish groups from western Iran, where they make up 10% of the population. There is a problem: Turkey does not want autonomy for “the largest people in the world without a country”.
In the two weeks since the start of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, Iran’s war aims Donald Trump have oscillated between seriously weakening Iran’s military capabilities and overthrowing the regime that has ruled the country since 1979.
But, despite the success of the initial attackswhich , Ali Khameneimany military analysts consider that the air power alonewill not be enough to bring about a change of regime.
According to these analysts, this objective would be practically impossible to achieve without , an option that most American military and political leaders have opted for. opposed for a long time.
Instead, one of the ideas that seems to be circulating in Washington involves supporting a invasion carried out by armed Kurdish groups in Iraq and western Iran, with the aim of destabilize the Islamic Republic from within.
Trump publicly backed away from that idea on March 6, telling reporters: “I don’t want the Kurds to enter Iran… War is complicated enough as it is.”
But, taking into account the unconsciousness that so often marks Trump and the unpredictable nature of that conflict, an armed Kurdish insurrection remains a very real possibility.
However, such a scenario may have consequences far beyond Iranwrite Ben Seymour and Eszter Simon, professors of International Relations at Nottingham Trent University, in an article in .
Kurds are a ethnic group with its own language and culturewhich has lived for centuries in a mountainous area of the Middle East.
Currently, they are around 30 million and live in a region that extends across parts of Türkiye, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Kurds are widely considered the largest stateless people in the worldbecause they do not have a country of their own.
If the territory currently occupied by ethnic Kurdish majorities were transformed into a country, the Kurdistan would be one of the largest countries in the regionat the expense of significant parts of the countries mentioned above, who oppose such a possibility — in particular the Türkiye, which has intervened in the region in order to prevent the formation of Kurdish autonomy.
Map of Kurdistan
This situation dates back to the end of the First World Warwhen the Ottoman Empire collapsed. At that time, Kurdish leaders hoped to create their own state, after having lived for 400 years under Ottoman rule.
But instead, their land was divided between several new countries that emerged from the rubble of the defeated Ottoman state. This left Kurdish communities spread across several international borders.
Nearly 10% of Iran’s population is Kurdishand many live in the northwest of the country, along the borders with Iraq and Turkey. The Kurdish region of Iran has long been the least developed part of the country in economic terms, and Kurdish political parties are banned. Armed Kurdish groups have periodically clashed with the Iranian state, demanding greater autonomy or independence.
The Kurdish question it is even more sensitive in Türkiyewhich is home to the largest Kurdish population in the world. Since 1984, the Turkish state has been in conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an armed group that fought for the creation of an independent Kurdish state. This conflict has caused more than 40,000 deaths in the last four decades.
For the Turkish government, the possibility of the US supporting Kurdish fighters in neighboring Iran It is not, therefore, just a question of foreign policy. Turkish leaders fear that the reinforcement of armed Kurdish groups in other parts of the region could encourage similar movements within Türkiye itself.
In the recent past, Turkey in the Kurdish regions of Iraq and Syria. It also waged a harsh counterinsurgency campaign against PKK fighters, which is classified as “terrorist organization“, within its own borders.
These actions show the extent to which Turkish leaders reject any idea of Kurdish independence anywhere in the region.
O US support for Kurdish fighters It has caused tensions between the US and Turkey in the past. Ankara firmly opposed the partnership between Washington and the Syrian Kurdish forces during the fight against the Islamic State militant group in Syria in the late 2010s. Turkey argued that some of these Kurdish groups had links to the PKK.
As Türkiye’s relations with Israel were also affected by the Kurdish issue. The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoganaccused the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahuof undermining the transitional Syrian government by supporting Kurdish groups in that country. The Kurdish question has clearly become an important source of tension between Turkey, a key member of NATO, and the West.
Until now, the Türkiye has remained largely neutral in the war with Iran. Despite regional rivalry, Turkish and Iranian leaders share concerns about Kurdish separatist movements and, at times, have cooperated to contain them.
Regime change in Iran
For Turkey, the collapse or fragmentation of the Iranian state it would be deeply worrying. It could create precisely the conditions that Turkish leaders fear most: armed Kurdish groups operating along a much longer and much more unstable border.
Another concern is the possibility of a new refugee crisis. Turkey already hosts almost 4 million Syrians since the civil war that began in that country in 2011 — the largest refugee population in the world. This has become a major domestic political issue in Türkiye.
If conflict or state collapse in Iran, a larger and politically even more complex state than Syria, triggers large-scale displacement, many more refugees may head westtowards Türkiye. Such a scenario would place considerable political and economic pressure on the government.
Washington will be able to see the Kurds as a useful way to confront the Iranian regime without mobilizing US troops. But such a strategy could create new tensions in other parts of the region. For Turkey, Kurdish militancy is not just a foreign policy issue but a central national security concern.
If the war with Iran ends up strengthening armed Kurdish groups or destabilizing the Turkish border, Erdoğan may feel forced to react. This could open a new front in a regional conflict that is already expanding.
