could have an unexpected effect on the global geopolitical chessboard: revitalizing Russia’s economy and weakening the Western strategy against Vladimir Putin. According to an analysis published by the German weekly Der Spiegel, if the price of oil remains around $100 per barrel, Moscow could enter up to 10 billion extra dollars a month thanks to the increase in the price of crude oil.
And the problem, several analysts warn, is that Europa could end up paying twice for the same conflict: first with higher energy prices and then by financing military support for
Oil is once again Moscow’s great lever
After four years of and multiple packages of Western sanctions, the Russian economy was beginning to show clear signs of wear and tear. Energy revenues had fallen significantly: from more than 300,000 million dollars in 2022 to about 150,000 million annually in recent times.
Additionally, several key buyers, such as Indiahad begun to reduce their dependence on Russian crude, while some tankers loaded with oil from Moscow were stranded on the high seas due to a lack of buyers.
But the conflict in Gulf has altered the board again.
, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes, the price of crude oil has skyrocketed from around 60 dollars per barrel to at times exceeding 100 dollars.
That increase is an unexpected blessing for the Kremlin.
10 billion extra a month for Putin
The first estimates suggest that Russia is already getting additional billions from the rise in the price of oil.
If Moscow manages to sell its oil 40 dollars more expensive per barrelthe extra income could reach about $10 billion a month, according to calculations cited by European analysts.
This money arrives just when the country needed financial oxygen to sustain its military effort in Ukraine.
The conflict has become a war of attrition, where not only military advances matter, but also economic capacity. to sustain the war effort.
Europe, caught between two fronts
For Europe, the scenario is especially complicated. On the one hand, the increase in the price of oil makes energy, transportation and industry more expensive, with a direct impact on citizens and the economy.
But at the same time, European countries are allocating enormous resources to support Ukraine versus Russia. At the moment, Kiev It needs about $100 billion a year in foreign aid to maintain its defense.
Since Washington has reduced its direct financial involvement, Europe is assuming much of that cost.
The result is paradoxical: the increase in oil prices caused by the crisis in the Middle East reinforces Russia’s income, while Europe pays more for energy and finances Ukrainian defense.
A geopolitical domino effect
The fear in Brussels and in several European capitals is that the conflict that began in the Middle East ends up undoing years of economic pressure on Moscow.
For years, Western strategy had sought to reduce Russian energy revenues through sanctions and embargoes. Now, with oil soaring and some countries recovering purchases of Russian crude to stabilize the market, That effort could be partially neutralized.
In this scenario, the conflict in Gulf It would not only be redefining the global energy balance. It could also be giving Putin a financial lifeline in the middle of the war in Ukraine.
