Datafolha: Fear and insecurity dominate pre-election mood – 03/20/2026 – Politics

A negative feeling prevails in Brazil seven months from now. The majority say they are insecure, discouraged and afraid of the future when they think about the country, according to research.

According to the survey, the most predominant feeling is insecurity, cited by 69% of those interviewed, while 29% said they felt safe. Another 2% declared they did not know.

The majority are feelings of sadness (59%), discouragement (61%) and fear of the future (61%) compared to the levels of happiness (38%), excitement (37%) and confidence in the future (37%).

In general, according to Datafolha, there is a correlation between , with greater intensity in the relationship between disapproval and negative mood.

Among those who disapprove of (PT’s) work, 93% say they are insecure (7%, confident), 88% say they are discouraged (12%, excited), and 87% say they are sad (compared to 12% who are happy).

In the group of those who approve of the president’s work, the logic is reversed: 53% say they feel safe (44%, insecure), 66%, excited (32%, discouraged), and 66%, happy (31%, sad).

The same occurs at the intersection with the intention to vote for president. Among those who prefer (PL), 89% say they feel insecure, compared to 41% of those who hope to vote for Lula.

In relation to the vote passed in 2022, 90% of voters say they are insecure, compared to 46% of those who declared having voted for the PT member.

The fact that negative feelings appear more intensely among those who disapprove of the government, voted for Bolsonaro or intend to vote for Flávio indicates a mood permeated by polarization.

The rate is also high among those who want another path: among those who vote for (), 88% say they are unsure; in (), 81%; and blank, null or none, 87%.

As shown by Sheetthe country’s situation has worsened in recent months, partly reversing the improvement recorded in a survey carried out at the end of 2025.

According to the survey, the percentage of those who believe that the country’s economic situation has worsened rose from 41% to 46% from December to March.

There are also more interviewees who are pessimistic about the future, including in relation to their own financial condition, and who foresee an increase in inflation and unemployment — currently at historic lows.

The data comes from a survey carried out from March 3 to 5 with 2,004 people aged 16 and over. It is registered with the (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-03715/2026.

The survey included six questions presented in pairs of opposing alternatives. The maximum margin of error for the total sample is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level.

The mostly negative sentiment is a pattern in the historical series, but it retreated, especially in relation to October 2018, or at least registered levels close to those already recorded in previous years.

For example, that year, 88% of Brazilians said they were insecure when thinking about the country, 79% reported sadness, and 78% discouragement — higher than what is observed today, despite perceptions remaining mostly negative.

At that time, Lula was in prison, Brazil was at the end of the (MDB) government and was about to enter a turbulent presidential election that brought Jair Bolsonaro to power.

The numbers from May 2020, at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, do not differ much from the current ones. Insecurity reached 69%, discouragement was the feeling of 59% and fear of the future, 57%.

The only responses that currently divide Brazilians are anger (49%) versus tranquility (47%) and more fear than hope (51%) versus more hope than fear (48%).

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